The rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that the organised gold loan (GL) market is likely to reach Rs 15 trillion mark in the current financial year (FY26), a year earlier than previously expected. It said the steady uptrend in gold prices, scaling new highs, is the key reason behind the sharper than envisaged expansion. Subsequently, ICRA now estimates the GL size to rise to Rs 18 trillion in FY27.
According to the report, GLs had expanded at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 26% during FY24-FY25 and stood at Rs 11.8 trillion as of March 2025, with banks showing a slightly higher expansion rate vis-a-vis non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). Over the longer term too, i.e., during FY20–FY25 (six years), the bank GL asset under management (AUM) grew faster at around 26% relative to the 20% increase recorded by NBFCs, leading to a decline in the share of the latter in the overall organised GL AUM. It noted that growth in overall GLs was primarily fuelled by agriculture and other loans secured by gold jewellery, which were extended by banks. The same accounted for more than 70% of the overall GL as of March 2024. However, it said this segmental growth slowed significantly in FY25 as banks imposed stricter eligibility criteria and reclassified some of these loans under the retail/personal category.
The report said consequently, the share of retail/personal gold loans by banks increased to 18% (of the overall GLs) in March 2025 from 11% in March 2024 and the share of agriculture and other loans secured by gold jewellery declined to 63%. Banks remain the dominant player with 82% market share in overall GLs with NBFCs contributing to the rest. It noted that the share of NBFCs has declined from 22% in March 2021, indicating bank’ established position in this space. The overall NBFC GL AUM stood at about Rs. 2.4 trillion as of June 2025, growing by around 41% on a YoY basis. NBFC GLs are concentrated among a few players; and their share has been steadily declining.
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