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  3. ADB slashes Indian economic growth forecast to 4.7% for current fiscal

ADB slashes Indian economic growth forecast to 4.7% for current fiscal

03 Oct 2013 Evaluate

Amid rising concerns over the existing economic slowdown, Asian Development Bank (ADB) has cut Indian economic forecast to 4.7 percent for the current fiscal from 6 percent projected earlier. Presenting a sobering picture of India's economic outlook, the ADB in its report said that recent the rupee depreciation coupled with supply-side bottlenecks and long delays in structural reform could adversely impact the economy’s growth in the current fiscal. However, there could be some moderate improvement in 2014-15, with growth estimated at 5.7 percent, but below the previous forecast of 6.5 percent. 

By adding further, ADB report said that mounting inflationary pressures, weak currency and diminished employment prospects will continue to impede growth in consumer demand. The recent financial market turbulence is a timely reminder of the need for structural and fiscal reform not just to keep financial markets stable in the short-run, but also to ensure long-term growth. Therefore, the country must strengthen its structural reforms to expedite delayed large infrastructure projects to encourage foreign investment into the country. Further, it suggested that the government should allow exchange rate flexibility to ensure sufficient stock of foreign reserves while balancing its impact on inflation and corporate foreign liabilities.

Meanwhile, ADB expressed confidence that Indian economy will recover soon as the government has taken a number of steps to revive growth prospect. It added that government’s steps like containing inflation pressure, consolidating fiscal positions by reducing general subsidies, and managing well recently passed reform bills to check fiscal pressures should receive high priority. Referring to the rising inflation, ADB said that prices of food and fuel have been rising on account of currency depreciation, but tighter monetary policy will have some mitigating effect, along with depressed economic activity. ADB expects that inflation for this fiscal will remain at 6.5 percent, below the 7.2 percent forecast in April.

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