IMF revises India's GDP growth forecast to 6.6% for FY26

15 Oct 2025 Evaluate

International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) has revised upwards India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast by 20 basis points (bps) to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal (FY26) compared to its earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent on the back of strong growth, offsetting the impact of US tariffs on Indian shipments. However, it lowered the growth forecast by 20 bps to 6.2 per cent for FY27. The Indian economy grew by 7.8 per cent in April-June -- the highest in five quarters -- before the disruptive US tariffs were imposed.

The report said ‘Compared with the July WEO Update, this is an upward revision for 2025, with carryover from a strong first quarter more than offsetting the increase in the US effective tariff rate on imports from India since July, and a downward revision for 2026’. In July, the IMF revised its forecast for India's economic growth to 6.4 per cent for both 2025 and 2026. In its April 2025 WEO, it had projected the country's economic growth at 6.2 per cent for 2025 and 6.3 per cent for 2026.

The IMF further said global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and to 3.1 per cent in 2026. This is an improvement relative to the July WEO Update -- but cumulatively 0.2 percentage point below forecasts made before the policy shifts in the October 2024 WEO, with the slowdown reflecting headwinds from uncertainty and protectionism, even though the tariff shock is smaller than originally announced. For emerging market and developing economies, the IMF said the growth is projected to moderate from 4.3 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4 per cent in 2026.

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