IMF lowers India growth forecast to 3.75% for 2013

09 Oct 2013 Evaluate

Amid rising concerns over the deteriorating economic fundamentals of the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut Indian economic forecast to 3.75 percent in 2013 from 5.7 percent projected earlier. Presenting a sombering picture of India's economic outlook, IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook report, said that poor manufacturing and service sector performance coupled with rising inflation could adversely affect the economy’s growth in the current fiscal. 

IMF noted that strong agriculture production growth on the back of better weather conditions in current fiscal will be offset by lacklustre activity in manufacturing and services, and monetary tightening adversely affecting domestic demand. Referring to high inflation, IMF said that India is among the economies that may require more tightening to address inflation pressure, which will likely be reinforced by recent currency depreciation. The wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose to a six-month high of 6.10 percent in August as against 5.79 percent for the month of July. Meanwhile, IMF projected that Indian economic growth will accelerate to around 5 percent in 2014 on the back of easing supply bottlenecks and strengthening of exports.   

At present, Indian economy is struggling with slowdown and its growth has slowed down to four year low at 4.4 percent in April-June quarter, 2013. Further, all macro-economic indicators have deteriorated with current account deficit (CAD) widened to a record high of 4.9 per cent of GDP in the April-June quarter, 2013. Further, rupee value has also depreciated over 15 percent against dollar in 2013, which has become a cause of concern for the country, as India is structurally an import intensive country.

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