As per the Paris-based think-tank Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Indian economy is likely to witness a mediocre average annual growth of 5.9 percent during the 2014-18 period owing to the prevailing macroeconomic weaknesses. The OECD’s forecast for the country is much lower than its projected growth for overall Emerging Asia at 6.9 percent during the same period.
Regarding Indian economic growth, the OECD highlighted that prevailing macro-economic weakness in India particularly widening current account deficits (CAD) has raised concerns over its economic growth. The country CAD widened to a record high of 4.9 percent of GDP in the April-June quarter, 2013 on account of high gold imports and crude oil prices. High CAD also remained the main cause for rupee depreciation, which recently depreciated to a record low of over 68.50 against the US dollar.
Referring to the growth in emerging Asian economies, OECD said that growth in Emerging Asia comprising Southeast Asian nations, China and India would remain robust at 6.9 percent during the 2014-18 period on the back of steady rise in domestic demand. Meanwhile, the projected growth in the region is less than the 8.6 percent registered before the global financial crisis (2000-07). The slower rate of growth is mainly due to the moderate rates of expansion in the two largest Emerging Asian economies of China and India. Further, the report highlighted that ongoing volatility in financial markets, triggered by the prospects of tapering of quantitative easing in the US, may trigger crisis in the emerging Asia.
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