Indian economy likely to grow at 6.6% in FY26: IMF

27 Nov 2025 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that India's economy is estimated to grow at 6.6 per cent in current financial year (FY26). It noted that the Goods and Services Tax reforms are likely to help cushion the country from the adverse impact of the 50 per cent tariffs imposed by the US. It highlighted ‘India's economy has continued to perform well. Following the economic growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25, real GDP expanded by 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of FY26. It said that looking ahead, India's ambition to become an advanced economy can be supported by advancing comprehensive structural reforms that enable higher potential growth. Despite external headwinds, growth is expected to remain robust, supported by favourable domestic conditions.

It, however, noted that there are significant near-term risks to the economic outlook. On the upside, the conclusion of new trade agreements and faster implementation of structural reform domestically could boost exports, private investment, and employment. On the downside, further deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation could lead to tighter financial conditions, higher input costs, and lower trade, FDI, and economic growth. Unpredictable weather shocks could affect crop yields, adversely impact rural consumption and reignite inflationary pressures.

Besides, it stated headline inflation is projected to remain well contained, reflecting the one-off effect of the GST reform and continued benign food prices. Headline inflation has declined markedly, driven by subdued food prices. Moreover, it noted that the financial and corporate sectors have remained resilient, supported by adequate capital buffers and multi-year low non-performing assets. Fiscal consolidation has advanced, and the current account deficit has been contained, supported by resilient service exports.


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