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  3. India, emerging economies may not acheive 8% growth rate: IMF

India, emerging economies may not acheive 8% growth rate: IMF

10 Oct 2013 Evaluate

Raising concerns over the prevailing global economic downturn, International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that emerging economies including India may not be able to return to growth rates of 8 percent and more under present circumstances. Conversely, the government is committed to get the Indian economy back to its potential growth rate of 8-9 percent. The country economic growth has slowed down dramatically to decade low of 5 percent last fiscal year after recording an average of nearly 8 percent over the last nine fiscal years.

IMF has also cut Indian economic forecast to 3.75 percent in 2013 from 5.7 percent projected earlier citing that poor manufacturing and service sector performance coupled with rising inflation could adversely affect the economy’s growth in the current fiscal. Meanwhile, the government has rejected IMF's growth projections of 3.75 percent for the current fiscal, saying that the country is witnessing turnaround both in terms of growth in manufacturing and domestic demand and buoyancy in exports. Therefore, domestic economic growth will exceed 5 percent in current fiscal.

Further, presenting a somber picture of India's fiscal deficit outlook, IMF said that India's fiscal deficit is likely to increase to 8.5 percent of the GDP this fiscal, mainly due to the downward revision in GDP growth, depreciation of rupee and higher global oil prices. Widening fiscal deficit has become a cause for concern for India and the government is taking measures to rein in spending and cut subsidies to meet its fiscal deficit target at 4.8 percent of GDP in the current financial year. In the first five months of this fiscal, country’s fiscal deficit has already touched around three-fourths of the budget estimate.  

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