Ficci lowers Indian economy’s growth forecast to 5% for FY14

11 Oct 2013 Evaluate

Amid rising concerns over the prevailing economic slowdown, industry body Ficci has cut Indian economic growth forecast to 5 percent for the current fiscal from 6 percent projected earlier. Indicating tough times ahead for Indian economy, Ficci’s survey indicated that rupee depreciation coupled with rising inflation could adversely affect the economy’s growth in the current fiscal. 

The survey expects that the domestic currency will hover in the range of 62-65 per US dollar in the near future on account of declining foreign capital inflows. On inflation front, Ficci’s survey noted that inflation risks have resurfaced and country’s headline inflation rate expected to be around 6 per cent by March 2014 as rupee volatility continues to put pressure on prices. On the external front, the survey indicated that current account deficit (CAD) is likely to witness an improvement in the second half of the fiscal and CAD to GDP ratio is expected at 4.5 percent for Q3 FY14 and at 4 percent for the year 2013-14. Further, Ficci said that in order to control widening CAD, there is a need to look at both export and import side of the trade equation and government should provide new and stable financial products like Inflation Indexed Bonds (IIBs), Gold Accumulation Plan (GAP), Gold ETFs for the households to shift their savings away from gold. Indian CAD widened to record high of 4.9 percent of GDP in Q1FY14 owing to the high gold imports and crude oil prices.

Referring to economic growth recovery, Ficci’s survey said that although some positive developments like strong agricultural production on the back of good monsoons, improvement in exports and clearances to infrastructure projects make the case for economic recovery a little stronger, but it will take more time to witness firm signs of turnaround. With regard to performance of the industrial sector, survey further revealed that Indian Industrial Production (IIP) to grow by 1.7 percent in current fiscal, which is half the 3.5 percent growth that was projected in the previous round of the survey held in July 2013. Presently, Indian economy is struggling with slowdown and its growth has slowed down to four year low at 4.4 percent in April-June quarter, 2013. 

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