India’s GDP to grow at 7.5% in FY26 with robust domestic demand: CareEdge Ratings

18 Dec 2025 Evaluate

With the help of robust domestic demand and steady macro fundamentals, CareEdge Ratings in its latest report has estimated India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 7.5% in FY26 and 7.0% in FY27. Besides, nominal GDP growth is projected at 8.3%, lower than the budgeted 10.1% for FY26. It said in H1 FY26, healthy agricultural activity, reduced income tax burden, GST rationalisation, RBI rate cuts, festive demand and front-loading of exports supported growth. It further projected that GDP growth to moderate to around 7% in H2 FY26 as the impact of export front-loading fades and consumption demand normalises after the festive season. By Q4 FY26, the low base effect is likely to wane, and the deflator is likely to rise from current low levels.

On the inflation front, it said inflation likely to remain benign, with average CPI inflation projected at 2.1% in FY26. With low base of FY26, CPI inflation is expected to average 4% in FY27. It noted that 75% of the items in the CPI basket witnessing inflation below 4%, thereby implying broad-based moderation in inflation. It further expects that the Centre will be able to bring down the debt to around 50 (+/-1) % by the end of FY31 from the estimated 56.1% in FY25. It noted that the Government may go little slower on fiscal consolidation, with the fiscal deficit to GDP likely to be budgeted at 4.2-4.3% in FY27. With strong growth in order book of capital good companies, it said the country’s CAPEX cycle is screening early signs of revival. Foreign investors are also making a note of the country’s growth opportunity, getting reflected in a jump in gross FDI inflows into the country, especially in the new age sectors like EV, renewables, electronics, data centre and AI infrastructure. 

On exports front, it highlights that India’s shipments to the US have seen a decline across most category, following the imposition of 50% US reciprocal tariffs from end-Aug. Labour-intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, textiles and ready-made garments showed a sharp contraction in exports in Sep-Oct. On other hand, market shares for UAE and Hong Kong have risen in India’s gems & jewellery exports, while UAE and China have gained share in India’s textile exports. It estimated India’s goods exports to contract by around 1% in FY26 as against a growth of 0.1% in FY25. It highlighted that the encouraging performance in services exports is likely to continue with a projected growth of 8.5% in FY26 against 13.6% in FY25.

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