Amid recent U.S.-Venezuela tensions, the think tank - Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said that India is unlikely to face any material economic or energy impact due to the US-Venezuela conflict. On January 4, American forces carried out a large military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and taking them to the US to face various charges, including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said India faces negligible impact, as trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3% in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade remaining marginal.
He added that although India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, bilateral engagement has weakened sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions, which forced India to cut oil imports and scale back commercial activity to avoid secondary sanctions. As a result, India's trade with Venezuela is now small and declining. In FY2025, India's total imports from Venezuela were just $364.5 million, of which crude oil accounted for $255.3 million, an 81.3% drop from $1.4 billion in crude imports in FY2024.
India's exports to Venezuela were modest at $95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million. Srivastava said ‘Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India's economy or energy security’. Venezuela holds about 18% of the world's oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16%), Russia (about 5-6%), or the United States (around 4%).
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