World Bank lowers Indian economy’s growth forecast to 4.7% for current fiscal

17 Oct 2013 Evaluate

Amid rising concerns over the prevailing economic downturn, the World Bank has lowered India’s economic growth forecast to 4.7 percent for the current fiscal from 6.1 percent growth projected earlier.  The World Bank in its report ‘India Development Update’ has said that negative business sentiment coupled with rising inflation and higher interest rates could adversely impact the economy’s growth in the current fiscal.

By adding further, World Bank said that India's growth potential remains strong, but its macroeconomic vulnerabilities such as an elevated current account deficit (CAD), rising pressure on fiscal balances, rupee depreciation and high headline inflation could impact the speed of economic recovery. Therefore, there is a need for prudent macroeconomic policies and continued reforms in order to set strong foundations for accelerated growth.  At present, Indian economy is struggling with slowdown and its growth has slowed down to four year low at 4.4 percent in April-June quarter, 2013.

Regarding the growth in second quarter in current fiscal, it added that tighten liquidity and negative consumers sentiments are likely to curb the potential for recovery in the Q2 FY14 even after manufacturing output rebounded in July. Meanwhile, growth is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of current fiscal on the back of declining core inflation, strong agriculture growth on the back of better than expected monsoon and rising domestic exports. Referring to medium term outlook, the World Bank states that growth is expected to accelerate to 6.2 percent by 2014-15 as strengthening exports support a recovery in industrial activity and new investment projects come on stream. The World Bank further added that pressure on inflation is likely to moderate and cut its projection for wholesale price index (WPI) inflation to 5.3 percent for the current financial year as against 6.7 percent projected earlier.

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