Sensex, Nifty trade flat amid tariff-related concerns, geopolitical tensions

Indian equity benchmarks made flat-to-negative start on Friday but soon turned volatile and struggling for direction. At this point of trade, Sensex and Nifty were trading flat as traders avoided to take significant risk due to geopolitical tensions, tariff-related concerns and continued foreign portfolio outflows. Traders continued to remain cautious with report that India faced double-pressure over energy from U.S. President Donald Trump’s decisions to back a Bill mandating up to 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Besides, Foreign Institutional Investors net sold shares worth Rs 3,367.12 crore on Thursday. However, downside remained capped as State Bank of India report said that India's economy is expected to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2025-26 with upward bias, marginally higher from NSO's estimate of 7.4 per cent.

On the global front, all Asian markets were trading higher as investors braced for the release of all-important U.S. jobs data as well as a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. The jobs report will offer additional clues on the Federal Reserve's path for interest rates, with markets currently pricing in at least two quarter-point cuts in 2026.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 84139.55, down by 41.41 points or 0.05% after trading in a range of 84019.50 and 84406.22. There were 13 stocks advancing against 17 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index fell 0.21%, while Small cap index was down by 0.40%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 0.88%, Oil & Gas up by 0.78%, TECK up by 0.69%, IT up by 0.58% and Energy up by 0.47%, while Realty down by 1.38%, Power down by 0.72%, Healthcare down by 0.38%, Capital Goods down by 0.35% and Utilities down by 0.29% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Eternal up by 3.07%, Tech Mahindra up by 1.57%, HCL Technologies up by 1.48%, Asian Paints up by 1.09% and Power Grid up by 0.96%. On the flip side, ICICI Bank down by 1.40%, Adani Ports & SEZ down by 1.11%, NTPC down by 0.99%, Sun Pharma down by 0.80% and Trent down by 0.59% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, days after release of first advance estimated by National Statistics Office (NSO), a research report from State Bank of India’s (SBI’s) Economic Research Department has estimated that Indian economy likely to grow at 7.5% in 2025-26 with upward bias. This projection is marginally higher from NSO’ estimate. The National Statistics Office (NSO) put GDP growth in 2025-26 at 7.4% as compared to 6.5% in the previous fiscal. The RBI had projected the growth rate at 7.3%. 

The report said historically, the difference between Reserve Bank's estimate and NSO’s estimate is 20-30 basis points and hence the 7.4% estimate is quite expected and reasonable. On fiscal deficit, it said that at the end of November 2025 it stood at Rs 9.8 lakh crore or 62.3 per cent of budget estimate. It said ‘We believe that even though the tax revenue is likely to be lower than that budgeted for FY26, non-tax revenue will be on the higher side thereby not impacting the overall receipts much’.

It noted that total expenditure is also expected to be lower, leading to fiscal deficit of Rs 15.85 lakh crore compared to the budgeted Rs 15.69 lakh crore. With the new GDP figure, fiscal deficit as percentage of GDP is likely to remain unchanged at 4.4 per cent. Meanwhile, the second advance estimates, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026. So, the report said all these numbers are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 25887.70, up by 10.85 points or 0.04% after trading in a range of 25818.35 and 25940.60. There were 27 stocks advancing against 22 stocks declining, while 1 stock remained unchanged on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Eternal up by 3.23%, ONGC up by 1.83%, HCL Technologies up by 1.61%, Tech Mahindra up by 1.54% and Bharat Electronics up by 1.20%. On the flip side, ICICI Bank down by 1.44%, Adani Ports & SEZ down by 1.04%, Adani Enterprises down by 0.90%, NTPC down by 0.87% and Shriram Finance down by 0.84% were the top losers.

All Asian markets were trading higher; Nikkei 225 surged 656.74 points or 1.28% to 51,774.00, Taiwan Weighted rose 67.63 points or 0.22% to 30,428.18, Jakarta Composite gained 35.39 points or 0.4% to 8,960.86, KOSPI increased 29.09 points or 0.64% to 4,581.46, Shanghai Composite advanced 12.35 points or 0.3% to 4,095.33, Hang Seng added 4.69 points or 0.02% to 26,154.00 and Straits Times was up by 4.65 points or 0.1% to 4,743.72.