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Planning Commission projects CAD at around 2.5% of GDP for current fiscal

17 Oct 2013 Evaluate

Giving respite to government's concern over the widening current account deficit (CAD) of the country, Planning Commission has estimated that India’s CAD will be around 2.5 percent of GDP in current fiscal, which is sharply lower than Finance Ministry's target of $70 billion or 3.7 percent of GDP. Planning Commission projection is based on a sharp decline in gold imports and better-than-expected growth in exports. Indian exports increased by 11.15%, a double-digit growth for the third consecutive month to $27.68 billion for the month of September. Imports of gold and silver plunged more than 80% to $0.8 billion in September from $4.6 billion a year earlier.

With the significant double-digit growth in country’s exports and a sharp contraction in imports, India’s trade deficit in September fell to its narrowest level in two-and-half years to $6.76 billion as against $17.15 billion in the same month of previous year and $10.9 billion recorded in August, 2013. Indian gold import bill for 2013-14 is expected to be $35-38 billion against $56 billion in 2012-13. Further, Planning Commission said, in case of increase in gold imports due to festival demand, it could easily be financed and thus the overall deficit would be not be impacted. On the other hand, the government is confident about improving country’s merchandise exports to $325 billion against $309 billion estimated earlier. 

CAD, the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange widened to a record high of 4.9 per cent of GDP in the April-June quarter, 2013. High CAD also remained the main reason for rupee depreciation, which depreciated by over 15 percent against dollar in 2013.

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