Limited impact of Iran unrest on India Inc's global trade: Crisil

29 Jan 2026 Evaluate

Domestic credit ratings agency, Crisil has said that the ongoing civil and political unrest in Iran has not had any significant impact on India Inc's global trade, or the credit profiles of domestic corporates so far. However, it cautioned that if tensions persist or escalate, sectors such as oil refining, aviation and crude-linked sectors, such as specialty chemicals, paints, petrochemicals and synthetic textiles may be affected due to rise in crude oil prices. Additionally, companies involved in basmati rice, fruits, and nuts trade may see heightened impact. 

The report said as Iran accounts for over 4 per cent of the world's crude oil supply, any escalation that disrupts its production could spike prices and the same should be watched closely by a country like India that is dependent on imported crude. It noted that while India's direct dependence on Iran for crude-linked products is low, any sharp rise in crude oil prices will have a cascading impact on sectors such as oil refining, aviation, specialty chemicals, paints, flexible packaging and synthetic textiles. It added that the extent of impact will depend on the specific sector's ability to pass on the incremental cost.

According to the report, Brent crude prices have stabilised at lower levels after spiking by $5 per barrel to $65 per barrel in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. It said the country's direct trade with Iran is minuscule, and added that the Gulf nation accounts for 0.3 per cent of total Indian exports and less than 0.1 per cent of Indian imports. Over 60 per cent of the exports to Iran is basmati rice, while imports are mostly fruits and nuts, and some crude-linked products. 

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