Benchmarks likely to make positive start on Monday

Indian equity markets are likely to make positive start on Monday, despite weak cues from Asian markets. Traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-watch approach ahead of the release of the final HSBC Manufacturing PMI data for January later in the day. However, sentiments may remain fragile amid persistent FII selling and uncertainty around global trade developments. 

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Budget is inclusive, growth and employment-oriented: Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) S Mahendra Dev said the Budget 2026-27 is inclusive, growth- and employment-oriented and focuses on ease of doing business and ease of living Budget.

Budget provides strong systemic support to export ecosystem: Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said the Budget for 2026-27 has announced a series of measures and provides strong systemic support to the exporting ecosystem by focusing on areas such as manufacturing and trade facilitation.

India’s budget tactical, not breakthrough: Moody's Ratings’ report has said that India's annual federal budget was tactical but ?not a breakthrough. Planned fiscal consolidation, which will bring the budget gap to 4.3% from 4.4% in the current year, will not change India's credit profile.

Budget aims to accelerate grid scale energy storage: Union Minister Pralhad Joshi has said that the Union Budget aims to accelerate grid-scale energy storage and enable seamless integration of renewable energy.

Persistent foreign fund outflows: Data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Indian equities worth Rs 588 crore during Sunday’s special trading session. 

On the global front: Asian markets are trading mostly in red, following the broadly negative cues from Wall Street on Friday. 

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks closed sharply lower on Sunday, as market participants reacted to the Union Budget and booked profits across sectors. In her Budget address for 2026-27, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced an increase in Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on futures trading to 0.05 per cent from 0.02 per cent, making derivative trades marginally costlier. She also announced that buyback proceeds will now be taxed as capital gains for all shareholders. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1546.84 points or 1.88% to 80,722.94 and the CNX Nifty was down by 495.20 points or 1.96% to 24,825.45.   

Some of the important factors in trade:

India may achieve $2 trillion exports target by 2032: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that the target of taking India's goods and services exports to $2 trillion is likely to be achieved around 2032, instead of the earlier goal of 2030, due to global uncertainties.

Govt reports 6.2% increase in GST collection for January: the government data has showed that gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections increased 6.2 per cent to over Rs 1.93 lakh crore in January 2026 as compared to Rs 1.82 lakh crore collected in January 2025, mainly on higher revenues from imports.

Bank credit to industry accelerates to 13.3% Y-o-Y: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that the pace of bank credit to industry has accelerated to 13.3% in December 2025 as against 7.5% in the corresponding period last year.