Crisil Ratings in its latest report has said that India’s electric two-wheeler (E2W) volume is likely to grow 16-18 per cent in the next financial year (FY27), up from projected 12-13 per cent in the current fiscal (FY26), supported by structural ownership-cost advantage and easing rare-earth supply. This fiscal, the E2W growth is expected to moderate from previous fiscal due to temporary disruptions in the supply of rare-earth magnets and the goods and services tax (GST) rationalisation on internal combustion engine (ICE) models. In the previous fiscal, E2W volume growth was at 22 per cent.
However, the report said competitive pressure is creating divergent risk profiles, with legacy players better insulated, while new-age players continue to face weak unit-vehicle economics. It said an analysis of 10 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), comprising four legacy players with ICE and E2W portfolios and six new-age, EV-only players, indicates as much and added that these OEMs account for about 85 per cent of the E2W volume.
According to the report, E2W adoption continues to be supported by strong vehicle economics. It noted that while GST rate cuts have reduced the purchase cost of ICE vehicles, running costs favour E2Ws, at about 3 paisa/km versus Rs 2-2.5/km for ICE, continuing their advantage in total cost of ownership even as subsidies taper. With incentives being phased out and the pace of decline in battery cost (which accounts for 35-40 per cent of total costs) slowing after a sharp correction over the past two fiscals, it said price-led competition has narrowed.
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