Retail inflation likely to rise to 4.3% in FY27: Crisil

19 Feb 2026 Evaluate

Crisil in its latest report has said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation or retail inflation is likely to rise to around 4.3% in fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) from an estimated 2.5% for FY26. With assumption of a normal monsoon in 2026, it noted that food prices are likely to remain broadly benign, while a low base effect will push food inflation higher than FY26. It also said the reduced weight of food in the new series should limit the extent of this rise. The weight of food in the revised CPI series has declined to 36.75% from 45.86% earlier

As per the report, non-food inflation, supported by easing precious metals inflation and benign global oil and commodity prices, should restrain the overall inflation. This would allow the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee to maintain its pause on the repo rate and focus on the transmission of the 125 bps rate cut carried out in calendar year 2025.

The report said the weight of the core CPI index has increased to 57.89% from 47.3%, strengthening its influence on the headline inflation. In the first nine months of FY26, core inflation rose faster than the headline print, led by a sharp spike in gold and silver inflation. With this high base and amid expectations of benign global oil and commodity prices, core inflation is likely to be moderate in FY27.


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