Crisis in Middle East may fuel inflation in India, adversely impact exchange rate: Finance Ministry

09 Mar 2026 Evaluate

In a cautious tone, the Finance Ministry, in its latest report Monthly Economic Review for February, has said that rising prices of petroleum products and fertilizers due to the prolonged crisis in the Middle East may stoke inflationary pressures on India and may have adverse implications for the exchange rate. Besides, subdued capital flows, accentuated by a flight to safety, could put pressure on the currency. It also said that some sectors dependent on LNG and crude, like fertilisers and petrochemicals, could be affected if the crisis is prolonged. It added that this conflict has already driven Brent crude up around 9 per cent to near $80/bbl and LNG prices around 50 per cent. 

Despite the country’s high import dependency on crude oil, it said the country has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, a low CAD (which stands at 0.8 per cent of GDP in H1 FY26), and low inflation rates, which collectively allow it to effectively mitigate the impacts of rising global crude oil prices and ensure domestic energy security. However, if the crisis persists, it could have material implications for the exchange rate and the current account deficit and could stoke inflationary pressures. 

However, the report highlighted that Indian economy has maintained strong momentum in FY26, with real GDP growth estimated at 7.6 per cent and real GVA growth at 7.7 per cent. Economic activity in January 2026 remained broad-based, supported by strong high-frequency indicators, including robust logistics activity, expanding PMI indices and sustained demand conditions, pointing to continued growth momentum. The external sector is stable despite elevated global trade uncertainty.

Moreover, it said India’s active trade diplomacy, including progress on the India-EU FTA, the India-US Interim Trade Arrangement and the India-Oman CEPA, together with Budget initiatives aimed at improving trade facilitation, logistics efficiency and export competitiveness, is expected to diversify export destinations and strengthen external resilience over the medium term. It noted that external developments, including global growth conditions, trade dynamics, commodity price movements and geopolitical factors, will continue to shape the outlook. Nevertheless, it said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and continued reform momentum position the economy well for expansion. 

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