ICRA sees downside risk to India’s FY2027 growth projection amid West Asia crisis

11 Mar 2026 Evaluate

Expressing concerns over ongoing crisis in West Asia and its impact, ICRA in its report has said that there will be a downside risk to the India’s growth projection for FY2027 due to this conflict. The magnitude of this risk depends on the conflict's duration and its impact on domestic investment, inflation, and external trade. ICRA currently projects the real GDP growth at a healthy around 7.1% in FY2027 (vs. 7.6% in FY2026 Second Advance Estimates (SAE)) as per new 2022-23 series, amid favourable developments including the interim deal with the US with a lower tariff rate, improved prospects for domestic investment, aided by the robust hike in Central capital spending included in the Union Budget. In nominal terms, ICRA projected the GDP growth (2022-23 base) at around 10.1% in FY2027, up from 8.6% in FY2026 SAE, amid an expected pick-up in WPI and CPI inflation compared to the current fiscal.

The ongoing conflict has led to disruptions in shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy corridor, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions and higher freight costs. West Asia remains a significant trade partner for India, accounting for around 14 per cent of exports and nearly 21 per cent of imports, making the country vulnerable to disruptions in trade flows and energy supplies if tensions escalate further. As a result, the conflict poses meaningful risks to India's trade flows, particularly in the form of higher freight costs, supply delays, and uncertainty over energy supplies.

According to ICRA, a $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices could widen India's current account deficit by 0.30-0.40 per cent, while also pushing up wholesale and consumer price inflation. Higher fuel costs could dampen consumption demand and weigh on overall economic activity. Its baseline projections assume crude oil prices averaging $70-75 per barrel in FY2027, which could keep the current account deficit at around 1 per cent of Gross Domestic Production (GDP). However, if prices rise to $100-105 per barrel, the deficit could expand to about 1.9-2.2 per cent of GDP, increasing macroeconomic pressures. It added that the situation could also impact remittance inflows, with around 40 per cent of India's inward remittances originating from West Asian countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

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