RBI strikes a hawkish tone in Macroeconomic report; ups inflation forecast for FY14 to 6%

29 Oct 2013 Evaluate

In its macroeconomic report released ahead of RBI's monetary policy review on Tuesday, the Apex bank has lowered FY15 growth forecast to 5.8% from 6.5% earlier. Not only this it also raised FY14 average WPI forecast to 6% from 5.3%, even as it lowered FY15 WPI forecast to 5.5% to 5.7%.

India’s apex bank expects both wholesale and consumer price inflation (WPI & CPI) to stay above comfort level in the second half of this fiscal.  India's headline wholesale price index inflation rose to a seven-month high 6.46% in September, while the consumer inflation (CPI) quickened to 9.84%. In its report, the RBI noted that a drop in food inflation was required to bring down broader consumer price inflation.

Further striking a hawkish tone, the report underscored that monetary policy faces an unenviable task of anchoring inflation expectations, amid tepid growth and weak business confidence, thereby fuelling hopes that 25-50 basis points rate hike could be on cards.

However, on the positive side, RBI expects India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) to moderate in the second quarter of the current fiscal, driven by improvement in the trade balance. The country’s CAD widened from 3.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in fourth quarter of 2012-13 to 4.9% of GDP in first quarter of 2013-14. Additionally, the review also highlighted that inflow from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), which had turned negative since end-May 2013, reversed in September. Besides that pressure on rupee was also abating.

Fed’s decision to continue with the monthly quantum of asset purchase on September 18, stating that they will await more evidence of an enduring economic recovery before adjusting their pace, brought significant improvement in market sentiments. Besides, that slew of measures taken by new RBI, also curbed the downwards spiral of Indian currency.

© 2026 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×