The World Bank, in its South Asia Economic Update April 2026 report, has marginally raised India's growth projections for the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) by 30 basis points to 6.6% compared to its October 2025 forecast of 6.3%. It said although Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts would boost consumer demands in the initial months of the fiscal, but headwinds from the Middle-East crisis could dent growth. The World Bank’s FY27 projection is lower than 6.9% estimated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), while it is higher compared to 6.1% by the OECD and 6% by Moody's Ratings.
As per the report, India's growth is estimated to have accelerated from 7.1% in FY25 to 7.6% in FY26, owing to strong domestic demand and export resilience. Private consumption growth is particularly robust, supported by low inflation and rationalisation of the GST. It added that although the reduction in GST rates should continue to support consumer demand in the first half of FY27, elevated global energy prices are likely to put upward pressure on prices and constrain households' disposable income.
It noted that government consumption growth is expected to soften to onset higher subsidy outlays for cooking fuel and fertilisers. Investment growth is likely to moderate amid elevated uncertainty and rising input costs. It further said improved access to the United States and the European Union (EU) for India's exports will be undermined by slower growth in major trading partners.
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