The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its report on the Asia-Pacific segment has said that Asia is likely to remain the primary driver of global growth, with India and China contributing 70 per cent of the region's total expansion. However, a severe energy shock triggered by the Gulf crisis, specifically the 2026 conflict involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, will negatively impact the region. However, it said the 5 per cent regional growth witnessed in 2025, despite the impact of US tariffs and trade uncertainty, will moderate to 4.4 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027.
Krishna Srinivasan, Director for the IMF Asia Pacific Department, said Asia entered 2026 on a strong footing with growth remaining resilient despite bearing the brunt of US tariffs and trade uncertainty. However, he said given the region's high fossil fuel intensity and reliance on conflict areas for key commodities, the new energy shock will negatively impact the region. He added that this crisis is elevating regional inflation, weakening external balances, tightening financial conditions, and narrowing policy space for governments.
Srinivasan said growth across most Asian economies turned out stronger than expected in late 2025. This is thanks to exports and consumption which held up better than anticipated, supported by accommodative policies and financial conditions. Asia's exports to the US declined but that to the rest of the world increased. As for other growth drivers, he said consumption recovered at different speeds across countries, while investment, not surprisingly, remained soft in many economies amid uncertainty and country-specific shocks. He said in the context of the war in the Middle East, oil and gas prices have risen sharply, and there is considerable uncertainty about how persistent this shock will be.
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