Indian manufacturing activity stuck to its declining trajectory for third consecutive month in October as order books shrank at quicker space. The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a headline index designed to measure the overall health of the manufacturing sector, stood unchanged at September’s 49.6 points. Albeit marginal, successive deterioration of business conditions across India, indicate continued contraction in the sector as a reading above 50 indicates growth and below that depicts contraction. Slowdown in manufacturing sector activities and declined new business orders underscores the prolonged period of slowdown in Asia’s economy, despite mark up in overseas demand which prompted firms to hire more workers.
The new orders sub-index fell to 48.9 in October as against 49.6 in September, remaining below watershed 50 for the fifth consecutive month. Order flows remained weak, despite a bounce-back in export orders. Encouragingly, export business expanded for the first time in three months during October on the back of weaker Rupee. However, the overall pace of growth was, however, moderate and weaker than the series average.
Further, latest data highlighted consumer goods as the best performing sector in October, with production, new orders and export business all rising. Conversely, intermediate goods was the worst performing category. Stronger new order flows at consumer goods manufacturers led firms to recruit additional workers in October. However, with investment and intermediate goods firms indicating job shedding, the overall rate of employment growth across the Indian manufacturing sector as a whole was marginal.
Thus, the latest survey suggests that India’s Apex Bank has to continue its staring contest with inflation, given that input cost inflation rising to a 16-month peak has forced firms to lift output prices to protect margins.
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