Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) President Rajiv Memani has said that a prolonged conflict in West Asia, accompanied by major disruptions in shipping and rising energy prices, poses a serious threat to India's economic growth momentum and likely to pull down the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to below 6.5%. Memani said that the ongoing energy crisis on account of the West Asia conflict poses the biggest risk to global economic growth - including India's - if it drags on for a long time.
He stated ‘If it (West Asia crisis) does settle on time, then I think, you know, the growth momentum should pick up. You know, we should be somewhere between 6.5 to 7%. If it extends for a very, very long time, then, you know, maybe slower than 6.5%.’ However, he said that any concrete predictions for GDP growth and interest rates remain uncertain until the situation in West Asia stabilizes.
On elevated crude oil prices and their impact on the Indian economy, he said ‘There is enough evidence of different price points and different impacts on India's growth. I think by and large, over the last 10-12 years, except for some phases in between, oil prices have been benign, and I think that's also helped India to achieve strong growth.’ Moreover, he noted that any price above $100 per barrel is likely to impact growth, as India has not yet sufficiently altered its demand patterns.
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