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S&P Global lowers India's FY27 GDP growth estimates to 6.6% amid West Asia conflicts

07 May 2026 Evaluate

S&P Global in its latest ‘India Forward’ report, jointly done with Crisil, has lowered India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimates for the current financial year (FY27) to 6.6 per cent from 7.1 per cent projected earlier. It noted that structural reforms in energy and food security would be essential to achieve the vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047. It said India is facing significant economic pressure due to West Asia conflicts, disrupting energy supplies, elevating oil and gas prices and currency volatility. It added that India must develop comprehensive energy storage policy to create strategic buffers. 

Crisil Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi said ‘as the duration of the West Asia crisis rises, we see newer stress points emerge. The rupee weakening and oil prices rising are a double whammy of sorts. It all creates pressure on growth.’ He said amid ongoing conflict in West Asia, India should focus on energy and food security, and the fertiliser sector. Calling for more reforms to deal with the crisis, he said India needs to become more competitive to take advantage of the recently signed free trade agreements (FTAs), which provide lower tariffs and increased market access. 

Talking about the impact of higher crude oil prices on wholesale (WPI) and retail (CPI) price inflation, Joshi said that since the pass-through of global crude oil prices has not happened to households, the WPI inflation numbers, which also account for imported items, will come in higher than the CPI. He also said higher global crude prices will show a larger impact on WPI in the form of imported goods and raw materials, and less on CPI as the government has been holding pump prices stable. The April print of inflation data will see the number rising, but WPI will be higher than the CPI in April.


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