The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its latest Economic Outlook report has said that India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 6.3% during the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) and by 6.4% in FY28. Rising inflation is likely to weigh on private consumption, while investment slows amid higher oil and gas prices and gas rationing. Employment growth and labour market participation are set to weaken. Inflation is projected to increase to 4.8% in FY27, driven by higher food, energy and fertiliser costs, and currency depreciation. The current account deficit is expected to widen, as higher energy import costs outweigh the impact of weaker domestic demand.
It also said that more persistent energy rationing could lead to weaker growth. On the upside, energy support could cushion real incomes and consumption more than expected. Fiscal policy is poised to turn expansionary in FY27 to mitigate the impact of higher energy prices, notably through subsidies. Moving from price support to targeted transfers could reduce the fiscal cost of policy support.
Following a period of easing, monetary policy is projected to tighten with a policy rate increase in early FY27 to help keep inflation within the target band. Streamlining and harmonising regulations would reduce administrative burdens, boosting productivity and investment. Accelerating the rollout of renewable energy sources would strengthen energy security and reduce carbon emissions.
It further said India’s crude oil and natural gas dependence on the Middle East is substantial, with crude oil imports accounting for about 46% of total imports in 2024 and natural gas for about 57%. Energy import prices have risen sharply in recent months, but only part of that has fed into domestic energy prices. Reductions in excise duties on petrol and diesel and the removal of import duties on selected petrochemical inputs, alongside export levies on refined products, have helped to contain the pass-through from international prices to domestic inflation.
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