Fitch Ratings lowers India’s GDP growth projections to 6.4% for FY27

09 Jun 2026 Evaluate

Fitch Ratings in its latest report has lowered India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projections to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal (FY27) from 6.7 per cent estimated earlier in March, as rising prices erode real incomes and dampen consumer spending, amid resilient capital expenditure. It said the US-Iran war will slow down the economy in the September and December quarters. However, it noted that domestic demand will be the main driver of growth, but lower imports in real terms imply positive contributions to growth from net external demand.

For FY28, Fitch expects GDP growth to pick up as the energy shock unwinds, with stronger consumer spending and investment translating to a growth rate of 6.7 per cent for the full financial year, and ease towards trend growth of 6.4 per cent in FY29. It said India's consumer price inflation has not yet risen significantly, but price pressures are mounting; wholesale prices rose by 8.3 per cent y/y in April and CPI inflation to 3.5 per cent. it said ‘We expect inflation to rise steadily over the months ahead, reaching 5.3 per cent by the end of the (calendar) year. This reflects a combination of base effects and higher energy prices. Forecasts for below-average monsoon rains and the current heatwave in parts of India raise the risk of even stronger price rises’. It noted that ‘We do not expect a further, significant depreciation in the Indian rupee over the rest of the year’. It expects the exchange rate to average 97.50 to a dollar in the current fiscal.

Fitch has also lowered its 2026 forecast for global growth by 0.2 pp to 2.4 per cent as world growth prospects have been hurt by the oil crisis prompted by the US-Iran war. The agency has revised its 2026 average price assumption for Brent crude oil to $87 per barrel (bbl), up from the $70/bbl estimated in March. The oil shock is a strong headwind to world growth, but its base case is far less severe than the pernicious oil shocks of the 1970s. Real oil prices reached $170/bbl in 1979 (measured in current prices) and Opec played a very different role then. Oil consumption as a share of world GDP has halved since 1980.

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