SBI research in its latest Ecowrap report has said that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent measures to attract foreign capital are expected to bring in $55-65 billion of inflows in the current fiscal (FY27), helping stabilise the rupee and turning the country's balance of payments (BoP) into a surplus. It noted that the measures include a concessional forex swap facility to encourage external commercial borrowings (ECBs) by public sector undertakings, as well as a similar facility for banks raising fresh 3-5-year Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR(B) deposits.
According to the report, the RBI's initiatives announced in February and June 2026 represent a coordinated strategy to stabilise the rupee, deepen India's domestic debt market, attract stable foreign capital and ease access to external funding. It said the February measures on the ECB were structural and market development oriented, while the June measures aimed to attract foreign currency inflows and support the rupee without raising domestic interest rates.
The further report said the expected inflows of $55-65 billion could significantly improve liquidity conditions in the banking system. It expects the deposit growth for FY27 for the banking system to jump to around 14.5-15 per cent against a potential credit growth of 16 per cent. As a result, the credit deposit gap after adjusting for regulatory dispensation will shrink by around Rs 1 lakh crore and this will ensure that the term structure of interest rates will decline further. Also, it said ‘the overall balance of payment would be in the range of $5 to $10 billion surplus for FY27. This is way above our previous estimate of $65-70 billion deficit. Subsequently, the current account deficit would be in the range of 1.5-1.7 per cent of GDP.’
