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Sharp depreciation of the rupee in mid-2013 highlights India's difficult transition; Fitch Ratings

21 Nov 2013 Evaluate

Fitch Ratings, in its report released on Thursday, highlighted that India's narrowing current account deficit will be inadequate to shield the country from pressures tied to Fed tapering. However, in a bit of relief, Fitch underscored that the spillover effects of the Indian rupee's weakness have not significantly hurt India's creditworthiness and hence do not trigger any ratings action at this point.

Further, the global rating agency added that country’s ratings at 'BBB-minus', the lowest investment grade rating, already factors in both the sovereign's vulnerabilities and tolerance for volatility in global financial market conditions. Nevertheless, it added that sharp depreciation of the rupee in mid-2013 highlights India's difficult transition following an extended period of low growth, high inflation and a widening in the current account deficit.

Meanwhile, in a bit of positive, Fitch opined that the economy has not lost much of the momentum on the back of 'resilient' agriculture and exports, and predicted economic growth of 4.8% for the economy in 2013/14 and 5.8% in 2014/15.

Additionally, the agency although averred that it expected fiscal deficit to remain under pressure, especially ahead of the general elections due next year, it also expected government to clamp down on spending.

Furthermore, Fitch has forecasted current account deficit to decline to 3.1% of GDP in FY14 (versus 4.8% in FY13), on account of measures undertaken to curb gold imports, a weaker exchange rate, and softer domestic demand.

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