Hope of good Q2 GDP numbers fuels Nifty rally

Nifty closed on a high note for the week on back of a strong 84-point rally on Friday, also marking its biggest weekly gain of around 3 per cent since the week ended October 11 on renewed interest from domestic institutional investors who have been net sellers thus far. The gains came in ahead of the second quarter GDP and fiscal deficit numbers for Apr-Oct period which were likely to be announced after market hours.

Continuing its previous session’s jubilation, Nifty edged higher in early trade as investors hoping for an improvement in economic growth during the July-September quarter purchased stocks in frontline blue chip counters. Experts were estimating the Indian GDP to have expanded by about 4.5 percent in the July-September period on the back of rising exports and a good monsoon. Some support also came in from report of wide roll-overs to the December series. The market sentiment was also boosted by data showing that foreign funds remained net buyers of Indian stocks November 28, 2013. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth net Rs 102.91 crore on Thursday, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. Firmness continued on street in late morning. Buying continued on street in late morning as the rupee was trading marginally higher in early trades on Friday tracking gains in the stock markets. The rupee was trading at 62.28 compared with Thursday close of 62.41. Some support also came in after the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia said that India will become the third-biggest economy in the world by 2030. 

In the afternoon session, the index climbed to day’s highest point on persistent buying activities by investors. Further, sentiments also got support from Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram's statement  that country’s fiscal deficit will remain within set target at 4.8 percent of GDP for current fiscal as the government is taking various measures to maximize revenues. As European stocks rose after global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's lifted its debt outlook on Spain also added to optimistic sentiments. In the last leg of trade, index managed to close above 6,150 levels.

NSE sectoral indices made a green closing; CNX PSU Bank up by 3.37%, CNX Bank up by 2.27%, CNX Finance up by 1.99%, CNX PSE up by 1.91% and CNX MNC up by 1.74% were the gainers on index. On the other hand, there was no loser on index.

The India VIX increased by 3.24% at 21.38 as compared to its previous close of 20.71 on Thursday. The 50-share CNX Nifty increased by 84.25 points or 1.38% to settle at 6,176.10.

Nifty December 2013 futures closed at 6148.80 on Thursday at a premium of 56.95 points over spot closing of 6,091.85, while Nifty January 2014 futures ended at 6199.15 at a premium of 107.30 points over spot closing. Nifty December futures saw an addition of 3.26 million (mn) units taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 17.30 mn units. The near month December 2013 derivatives contract will expire on December 26, 2013.

From the most active contracts, Reliance Industries December 2013 futures last traded at a premium of 6.35 points at 856.45 compared with spot closing of 850.10. The number of contracts traded was 23,792.

ICICI Bank December 2013 futures were at a premium of 2.50 points at 1048.85 compared with spot closing of 1046.35. The number of contracts traded was 22,071. 

United Spirits December 2013 futures were at a premium of 16.00 points at 2653.85 compared with spot closing of 2637.85. The number of contracts traded was 21,853. 

SBI December 2013 futures were at a premium of 13.70 points at 1778.70 compared with spot closing of 1765.00. The number of contracts traded was 23,390. 

Among Nifty calls, 6,500 SP from the December month expiry was the most active call with an addition of 0.53 million open interest.

Among Nifty puts, 6,000 SP from the December month expiry was the most active put with an addition of 0.67 million in open interest.

The maximum OI outstanding for Calls was at 6,500 SP (4.12 mn) and that for Puts was at 6,000 SP (5.27mn).

The respective Support and Resistance levels of Nifty are: Resistance 6204.47-- Pivot Point 6154.13-- Support -- 6125.77.The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) OI wise, stood at 1.16 for December month contract. The top five scrips with highest PCR on OI were, DR Reddy 2.00, CESC 2.00, Col Pal 2.00, HDFC 1.24 and Indusind BK 1.23.

Among most active underlying, United Spirits witnessed contraction of 0.04 million of Open Interest in the December month futures contract followed by Reliance Industries with an addition of 0.24 million of Open Interest in the near month contract; SBI witnessed an addition of 0.22 million of Open Interest in the December month futures. TCS witnessed an addition of 0.03 million in Open Interest in the December month contract and ICICI Bank witnessed contraction of 0.23 million in Open Interest in the near month futures contract.