Households in India see higher inflation in coming future: RBI Survey

09 Dec 2013 Evaluate

As per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) latest Inflation Expectations Survey, most households in India expect inflation to move higher in coming future. The survey conducted in the third quarter of 2013 (July-September) over 4,765 urban households revealed that the families in 16 cities expected prices to climb from 11.8 per cent year-on-year in the quarter ended September 2013 to 12.8 percent in the October-December quarter. Furthermore, they expect inflation for the next 12 months to be at 13.5 per cent.

Highlighting that it was the sixteenth consecutive double-digit average inflation expectation since December 2009, The RBI survey noted that around 77 percent of the respondents forecast double-digit inflation in the three-month period as compared to 65 percent in the quarter ended June 2013 and 80 percent forecast double digit inflation over one year, up from 73 percent in the second quarter of 2013. On city wise, the survey indicated that inflation expectations have eased in many major cities across the country. In Mumbai, respondents projected 12.3 percent inflation down from 14.9 percent and in Bangalore, the inflation expectations prediction down from 14.2 percent to 9.2 percent inflation. On the other hand, the survey responses in Delhi suggested a rise in inflation to 12.2 percent in the October -December quarter, compared to 11.6 percent estimate for the three months ended September. The inflation expectation was highest in Guwahati, with respondents fearing a 13 percent price rise in the survey conducted in July-September 2013, compared with 15.4 percent in the previous quarterly survey

The wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated to eight-month high of 7% in the month of October on y-o-y basis. Rising inflation in the country has become a concern for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has kept the inflation fight at the top of agenda and has been continually raising the policy rates over the past few months in order to trim the inflation.

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