FAO forecasts world food prices to stay at elevated levels

09 Jun 2011 Evaluate

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has increased the worries of many policy makers across the globe with a forecast that world food prices are set to stay at elevated levels for the rest of the current year and into 2012, despite prospects of a rebound in crop production from the adverse effects of bad weather in 2010. In its biennial ‘Food Outlook’ analysis FAO said that rising demand will absorb most of the increased output in food production.

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 232 points in May from a revised estimate of 235 points in April but was still 37 per cent above May 2010. Slight declines in international prices of cereals and sugar were responsible for the drop in the May index.  The report stated that consumers are unlikely to get relief from high food prices till December 2012, though it stated that prospects are encouraging in some countries such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine, weather conditions, featuring too little and in some cases too much rain, could hamper maize and wheat yields in Europe and North America.

The northern hemisphere has already entered the period of crop planting and therefore, the next few months would determine how the major crops fare. Weather will be the major driver of food markets until harvest time in September. Current prospects for cereals in 2011 point to a record harvest of 2,315 million tonnes, an increase of 3.5 per cent over 2010, which marked a one per cent drop over 2009. While, world wheat output is set to expand by 3.2 per cent mainly because of return to improved yields in Russian Federation, coarse grains are set to climb 3.9 per cent. Rice production may rise by an expected 2 per cent to 463.8 million tonnes.

Meat prices are hitting record highs following tighter availability. World meat production will rise by a mere one per cent to 294 million tonnes in 2011, constrained as it is by high feed prices, disease outbreaks and depleted animal inventories.

In its earlier report FAO stated that global food prices fell for the first time after eighth consecutive months of price spikes in March this year in the wake of a decline in international prices of oil, sugar and cereals but it has cautioned that although food prices declined in March, volatility in prices is expected to continue in the coming months amid fluctuating oil prices and low stocks of foodgrains across the world.

On the backdrop of the FAO’s latest report, Agricultural ministers from the G20 group of leading nations are due to meet in Paris on June 22-23rd to discuss an initiative that aims to reduce volatility in agricultural commodity markets. The G20 will discuss a new plan, called the Agriculture Market Information System (AMIS) and will bring together information on global supply and stocks from G20 nations, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization and international agencies.

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