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India's economic growth prospect to remain weak for 2014: Moody’s

18 Dec 2013 Evaluate

As per the global rating agency Moody’s, India’s economic growth remains weak and there is little chance of recovery next year. Presenting a sobering picture of India's economic outlook, rating agency has stated that weak infrastructure, complicated regulations and taxes and a weak central government weigh on investors’ confidence and demand. Maintaining that demand will turn around eventually, but not in 2014, and keep the GDP growth below potential.

Further, Moody’s added that general election due in next year will open possibility of better governance. Referring to the RBI’s monetary policy, the global rating agency asserted that over the past three years, monetary policy has been at best ineffective and at worst counterproductive, but it is changing under RBI’s new head, Raghuram Rajan. The new governor has handled two policy reviews since he took over on September 4 and has hiked repo rate by 0.25 percent each in order to tame high inflation.

Earlier in December, Moody’s had retained ‘Baa3’ (which is equivalent to BBB minus) sovereign credit rating for India that indicates investment grade but with a stable outlook. However, it highlighted that downward pressure on the rating could develop, if policies that impair the growth and fiscal outlook, were implemented, or if there was a material decline in foreign exchange reserves for coverage of external debt and imports. Moody’s expects country’s GDP growth to remain weak at 5.5% in the fiscal year ending March 2015.

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