Food inflation increase to two month high at 9.01% for May 28

09 Jun 2011 Evaluate

Despite, the government’s expectation of moderation in the prices of food items, India’s food inflation rose to a 9 week high of 9.01% for week ended May 28. This soar in food inflation was mainly because of increase in prices of tea, vegetables, fruits, eggs and meat and fish. Food inflation came into single digit in March and since then it was moving in-between 9.50% to 7.47%. Food inflation for week ended May 21 was 8.06 %. Food inflation jumped almost by 1% and this sudden increase by 1% in food inflation is going to increase the concerns of government.

As per the official data, the index of Food Articles group increased by 0.6% to 187.5 (provisional) from 186.3 (provisional), sudden increase of around 1% in food inflation was mainly because of increase in prices of tea which became costlier by 19%. Tea was followed by pork and maize registered (4%), jowar (3%) and milk, egg, urad, barley, poultry chicken and wheat (1% each). However, prices of items like ragi and arhar declined by 2% each and condiments and spices, bajra and masur (1% each) declined.

The index for Non-Food Articles group increased by 0.4 % to 184.0 (Provisional) from 183.3 (Provisional) for the last week because of higher prices of flower (13%), linseed, rape and mustard seed and groundnut seed (2% each) and castor seed and cotton seed (1% each).  However, the prices of raw silk (9%), gingelly seed (5%), sunflower (3%), copra (2%) and fodder, soyabean and raw jute (1% each) declined. Therefore, the primary article index which has 20.12% of weight in wholesale price index (WPI) increased by 0.5% to 192.7 (provisional) from 191.7 (provisional) for last week. The annual rate of inflation calculated on point to point basis, stood at 11.52% for the week ended May 28 as compare to 10.87 of last week.

As per the official data, the index for fuel and power which has weight of 14.91% in WPI has remained unchanged at its last week of 160.1 (provisional). The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 12.46 percent (Provisional) for the week ended May 28, 2011 (over May 29, 2010) as compared to 12.54 percent (Provisional) for the previous week ended May 21, 2011. 

The two month increase in food inflation figures come in the series of bad news for the Indian economy.  The GDP expansion of the economy experienced the five quarter low of 7.8% during the 4th Quarter of 2010-11. On the same time, six core industries registered slow growth of 7.2% in April. The slowdown in economy is mainly on account of high inflation and central bank’s aggressive monetary policy standing. Headline inflation stood at 8.66% in April, which is higher than RBI’s comfort zone and in its mid-quarter policy review it is expected to increase its policy rate to bring it back into its comfort zone. 

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