Post Session: Quick Review

23 Dec 2013 Evaluate

What started as a promising session of trade, turned to be a disappointing one by end on Monday, with traders preferring to cash out their gains two trading sessions ahead of F&O series expiry, with the profit-booking creeping in the final hour of trade, erasing all the early gains of the bourses, leading to flat closing. Sensex and Nifty, though managed to end tad lower to 21,100 and 6,300 levels respectively, with gains of close to one tens of a percent. However, barometer gauges had got a gap-up start on the back of optimistic global-set-up after US stocks scored record high close on Friday after data had the U.S. economy growing faster-than-projected in the third quarter, increasing optimism about the economic outlook.

However, sentiment turned a bit jittery after European shares slightly gave up their gains, despite a mostly positive close of Asian pacific shares. Nevertheless, European counterparts got off to a positive start as the International Monetary Fund underscored that it will be raising its U.S. economic growth forecast.

Closer home, while most of the sectoral indices ended in green, stocks from Information Technology and Technology counters, were the only weak links of the trade. The stocks tumbled as Rupee appreciated on account of dovish comments made by Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan, who underscored that he expects a fall in vegetable prices to likely ease the headline inflation and retail inflation to 6.5 percent and 9.20 percent respectively in December. Meanwhile, stocks from Realty, Metal and Capital goods pivotal were the prominent gainers of the trade. Real estate companies, seen as oversold in recent months, gained on value-buying, DLF Housing Development & Infrastructure and Unitech were up by 4-7%. On the flip side, shares of major tyre companies, MRF, Ceat, Apollo Tyres, JK Tyre Industries, slowed down on profit-booking after reports suggested that the government has hiked customs duty on imported rubber. According to media reports, the customs duty will now be at 20% or Rs 30 per kg, whichever is lower as against Rs 20/kg or 20% whichever is lower, earlier. The market breadth on the BSE ended positive; advances and declining stocks were in a ratio of 1587: 925, while 170 scrips remained unchanged. (Provisional)

The BSE Sensex gained 10.44 points or 0.05% to settle at 21090.16. The index touched a high and a low of 21207.89 and 21059.12 respectively. Among the 30-share Sensex, 19 stocks gained, while 11 stocks declined. (Provisional)

The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices ended higher by 1.32% and 1.24% respectively. (Provisional)

On the BSE Sectoral front, Realty up by 3.10%, Metal up by 1.38%, Capital Goods up by 1.23%, PSU up by 1.10% and Power up by 0.92% were the top gainers, while IT down by 1.00% and Teck down by 0.85% were the only losers in the space. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Hindalco Industries up by 3.69%, BHEL up by 2.17%,  ONGC up by 1.64%, Hero MotoCorp up by 1.30% and Tata Steel up by 1.28%, while, Infosys down by 2.50%, Tata Power down by 1.55%,  HDFC down by 1.26%, TCS down by 0.49% and Sun Pharma down by 0.48% were the top losers in the index. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, in a potential good news for the economy, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan, underscored that he expects, a fall in vegetable prices to likely ease the headline inflation and retail inflation to 6.5 percent and 9.20 percent respectively in December. Further, he added that some of the things that have really pushed up inflation are vegetables like onion prices, which have crashed in December and therefore the economy will see retail inflation coming down by 2-2.5 percentage from the current level of 11 percent or so and wholesale inflation by 1 percent, by mid-January.

 
It needs to be noted that RBI, left key policy rates unchanged in its December mid-quarter policy review and pointed that it would have to act accordingly, if the expected softening of food inflation does not materializes and translates into a significant reduction in headline inflation in the next round of data releases, or if inflation excluding food and fuel does not fall. These views came after Wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) accelerated to 14- month high of 7.52 percent in November, while retail inflation quickened to 8-month high of 11.24 percent during the month. Meanwhile, quoting an econometric study, the PMEAC  chief and the former RBI governor pegged the threshold inflation level at around six percent, but underscored there was a need to look at the slightly lower, as the level is much higher than what many other countries in the world. 
 
Further, Rangarajan blamed the delay in the completion of the projects for the snail-paced economic growth in the last few years. He highlighted that the economic growth had declined more steeply than warranted by the decline in investment and added that he expects the economy to grow by 5 percent in the current fiscal. Nevertheless, exuding confidence, he pointed that the existing level of investment rate should enable the economy to grow at 7.5 percent in the short run, while the potential growth rate of 8.5 percent could be achieved with some pick up in domestic savings rate, narrow current account deficit and sustained level of capital output ratio at around 4:1.

The CNX Nifty gained 8.25 points or 0.13% to settle at 6,282.50. The index touched high and low of 6,317.50 and 6,266.95 respectively. Out of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 32 ended in the green, while 16 ended in the red and two stocks remains unchanged.

The major gainers of the Nifty were Jindal Steel up 5.41%, PNB up by 4.46%, DLF up by 4.17%, Hindalco up by 3.47% and Grasim up by 2.71%. The key losers were Infosys down by 2.38%, Tata Power down by 1.87%, HDFC down by 1.48%, Lupin down by 1.03% and Asian Paints down by 0.94%. (Provisional)

Most of the European markets were trading in green with, Germany’s DAX up by 0.40% and the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 up by 0.38%, while France’s CAC 40 down by 0.02%.

The Asian markets concluded Monday’s trade mostly in green, Chinese stocks gained for the first time in 10 trading sessions, indicating improving confidence among investors concerned that a spike in interbank lending rates last week could gum up the country’s financial system. Nikkei Stock Exchange was closed for the day on account of Emperor’s Day holiday. Borrowing costs in China’s money market started soaring again following a brief fall earlier Monday, as the central bank’s recent fund injection failed to appease jittery investors amid a seasonal surge in demand for cash by banks. The seven-day repurchase-agreement rate, a benchmark measure of the cost that banks charge each other for short-term loans, rose to 9.8%, up from 8.2% and its highest level since it hit 11.62% on June 20, at the peak of China’s summer cash crunch.

Asian Indices

Last Trade

Change in Points

Change in %

Shanghai Composite

2089.71

4.91

0.24

Hang Seng

22921.56

109.38

0.48

Jakarta Composite

4189.61

-5.95

-0.14

KLSE Composite

1832.86

-5.17

-0.28

Nikkei 225

-

-

-

Straits Times

3116.22

21.74

0.70

KOSPI Composite

1996.89

13.54

0.68

Taiwan Weighted

8456.46

47.93

0.57

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