India’s PMI declines to 51.0 in November

01 Dec 2011 Evaluate

India’s factory output slowed in the month of November. The manufacturing sector grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years though export demand is likely to provide some cheer for factories. However, there is an enhancement in business conditions in the Indian manufacturing sector; the rate of growth was marginal and weak. Production was mainly hindered by weaker rise in new business and delays caused by power cuts. Employment declined for the fourth successive month.

The HSBC Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.0 in October, but has stayed above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for 32 months. The PMI was 50.4 in September. Whereas, the factory output index declined to a near 3-year low of 50.5, the new orders index, an indicator of future output, fell after a surge in October indicating the sector is close to stalling.

As per the survey, Indian manufacturers reported a 32 successive increase in new business received during November. However, the rate of expansion slowed from October and was second weakest in the current sequences of growth. On the other hand, new export orders showed marginal increase. However, this reflected an improvement on contractions recorded over the previous four survey periods.

Although the slowdown in output growth was more remarkable than the new business, the weaker increase in output was due to production delays caused by power cuts, along with the slower increase in new orders, which highlights the backlogs of work increased solidly. In November, purchasing activities also increased. However, the input prices faced by manufactures increased substantially in November. Higher raw material prices were the main reason for the surge in cost. 

Commenting on the India Manufacturing PMI survey, Leif Eskesen, Chief Economist for India & ASEAN at HSBC said 'Economic activity in the manufacturing sector continues to grow at a slower clip led by a deceleration in domestic orders. Despite this, manufacturers still struggle to keep up with new orders and inflation pressures are not abating. This suggests that the RBI will have to keep monetary conditions tight for an extended period.'
 
Since March 2010, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised its lending rate 13 times, but inflation has remained uncomfortably high at more than 9% for 11 consecutive months. This 13 rate hike in RBI’s repo and reverse repo rates has adversely affected the economic activities and investment rates. India’s economy, in July-September 2011 grew by 6.9% compared to 7.7% in April-June 2011. This decline in economic growth was due to fall in manufacturing sector, which accounts for 16% of India’s GDP, it grew by 2.7%  in second quarter of 2011-12 compared to 7.2% in the same quarter of last year. 

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