Factory PMI decelerates slightly in December as domestic orders slow down

02 Jan 2014 Evaluate

After picking up pace in the past three consecutive months in the previous month, India's manufacturing sector, decelerated marginally in December as a slowdown in domestic order flows led to slower output growth. The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a measure of factory production - dropped slightly from 51.3 in November to 50.7 in December. Nevertheless, despite a slight deceleration, the manufacturing sector activity expanded for the second consecutive month as the PMI reading stood above the watershed 50 mark, which differentiates growth from contraction.

However, as per the survey, the Indian manufacturing sector ended 2013 on an encouraging footing, as operating conditions improved for the second successive month in December, given that both output and new orders increased. Consequently, firms raised their workforce numbers further in December, the survey noted. Despite the fall in the factory output growth, new orders placed at Indian manufacturers rose in December, albeit marginally. The higher level of new work was largely driven by improved domestic and overseas demand. A sub-index, measuring overall new orders fell to 51.3, from 51.9 in November, which prompted firms to decrease the pace of output growth last month.

Meanwhile, a sector-wise analysis showed that the overall expansion in production volumes was largely focused on the consumer goods sub-sector. Moreover, export order growth was registered for the third consecutive month. Although quickening since November, the overall rate of expansion was modest and below the series average.

Further, Indian manufacturing employment rose in December, stretching the current period of job creation to three months. However, the rate of growth was only marginal. On the pricing front, the overall rate of inflation remained robust. Although, purchasing costs increased at the slowest pace for four months, Output prices rose for the seventh month in a row.

Thus, the latest reading shows that growth remains moderate and struggles to take off due to lingering structural constraints. Even so, inflation pressures remain firm and proving to be sticky. With this, RBI may yet again have to flex its muscles and tighten monetary policy to bring down the elevated level of inflation. Raghuram Rajan, the central bank governor, has made fighting inflation a priority after his appointment in September and has raised the repo rate twice since to bring it to 7.75 percent.

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