Service PMI decelerates further in December; fall to the lowest in last three months

06 Jan 2014 Evaluate

Marking sixth consecutive monthly drop in output levels, activity in India's services sector shrank at a faster pace in December as new orders dwindled, surprisingly, despite this firms hired at their fastest pace in five months. The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by Markit, fell to 46.7 in December from 47.2 in November. Further while, the December reading is the lowest in three months, the index has now stayed below the 50 mark that divides growth and contraction for the sixth straight month. Underpinning the fall in services, output was a solid decrease in incoming new work, which contracted at the quickest pace since September, with panelists reporting an increasingly fragile economy and competitive pressures. The new orders index fell to 47.3 last month from 48.2 in November, and has also remained below the 50 mark for six months. Further, the survey also blamed the upcoming general elections behind the drop of new orders.

Four of the six broad areas of the service economy registered lower output volumes, while new business contracted in five categories. Nevertheless, sharpest decline in new orders was noted at Hotels & Restaurants, while Post & Telecommunication sub-sector remained resilient, with growth of both business activity and new orders recorded. In some positive, PMI suggested pickup in the pace of hiring for private sector. The latest increase in payroll numbers were broad-based, with both manufacturers and service providers posting job creation. The December employment sub-index rose to its highest since July, after four months of showing a stagnant labour market.

Additionally, in yet another positive development, the rate of cost inflation was only moderate and the weakest since July as, input price inflation in the private sector as a whole eased to a six-month low. Furthermore, Indian service providers remained upbeat about the prospects for business activity in 2014, with the degree of confidence being the strongest in five months. Positive sentiment was linked by companies to forecasts of better economic conditions and hopes of higher demand.

Thus, the latest reading continues to raise doubts about the speed at which the economy will recover from its decade-low pace of growth as concerns over the headwinds being faced by the service sector prevail, with weakening new business dragging down activity. On the positive side, the survey also highlights the easing inflation pressures and the rising optimism of firms about the coming year.

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