India’s services sector recovers in November

05 Dec 2011 Evaluate

After two successive months of contraction, India’s service sector recovered in November on the back of surge in new business received by Indian private sector companies despite persistent inflationary pressures.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, which is based on a survey of 400 firms stood at 53.2 in November above the 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction. During October, it had declined to 49.1 and in September it had fallen to 49.8, which was the first contraction in more than two years.

Commenting on the India Services PMI survey, Leif Eskesen, Chief Economist for India & ASEAN at HSBC said, ‘the service sector demonstrated resilience, with both activity and new business on the rise. Unfortunately inflation continues to tick up as well, calling for the RBI to maintain tight monetary conditions for an extended period.’

According to HSBC survey, the input prices faced by both service providers and manufacturers saw surge in November, the overall rate of cost inflation was at a three-month high, which confirm that increasing raw material costs and higher wage and fuel bills had been main drivers of surge in input prices. As a result, price charged by service providers and manufacturers also increased, which indicates that the inflation in Indian economy is expected to remain at its current level.

The headline inflation measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for the month of October stood at 9.73%, for the 11th month in row when headline inflation was above 9% mark. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to meet for mid-term policy review on December 16, and it is expected to maintain a pause in its anti-inflationary stance, since March 2010, in order to control the RBI has hiked its key policy rates 13 times.

However, despite of high inflation and tight monetary condition, the HSBC India Composite Index that covers the manufacturing and service sectors for November surged to 52.3 from 50.3 in October. This three-month high growth in Composite Index is because of stronger expansion in new work received by the service providers offset a weaker rise in the manufacturing sector.

As per the survey, the Indian service providers were optimistic in November that activity would increase in coming 12-months. The marketing firms are expected to boost new business and therefore output. However, in November, the degree of positive sentiment declined to 33-month low. This record fall in positive sentiments suggest that the uncertainty in global economy may hurt export-oriented sectors in the future. 

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