Bonds fall post weaker-than-expected factory output data

10 Jun 2011 Evaluate

Pre April IIP Data Scenario:

Bond yields rose for the second consecutive session tracking a rise in U.S. yields, meanwhile higher global crude oil prices also weighed on the sentiment, thereby sending the yields higher. In addition, traders will be keenly eyeing the April industrial output data and auction cut-off details for Rs 12,000 crore debt sale for further cues.

On the global front, U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday as bargain-hunting investors favored stocks after six straight days of declines and the Treasury's auction of 30-year bonds drew tepid demand. Brent crude rose 1.5% on Thursday, reaching a five-week high as OPEC's surprise failure to reach a deal on raising output stoked more fears of leaner supplies later in the year.

The yields on 10-year benchmark; the 7.80%-2021 was trading higher at 8.30% from Thursday’s close of 8.27% tracking U.S. Treasuries and higher crude prices.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were tad higher at 7.78% from its previous close of 7.75% on Thursday.

The Government of India after market hours on Monday announced the sale of three dated securities for Rs 12,000 crore on June 10, 2011. This auction includes the re-issue) of (i) “7.83% Government Stock 2018” for a notified amount of Rs 3,000 crore (nominal), (ii) “7.80% Government Stock 2021” for a notified amount of  Rs 6,000 crore (nominal) and (iii) “8.26% Government Stock 2027” for a notified amount of Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auctions. The auctions will be conducted using uniform price method.

Post April IIP Data Scenario:

The newly introduced Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with an updated base of 2004-05 starting from the month of April expanded at 6.3% pace in April to 167.8 as compared to the level in the month of April 2010. The annual growth for the period April-March 2010-11 stands at 8.2% over the corresponding period of the previous year. However, under the old series, annual industrial output growth in April was 4.4%, lower than the general expectation of around 5%.

The yields on 10-year benchmark; the 7.80%-2021 was lower at 8.25% against Thursday's close of 8.27% after weaker-than-expected factory output data based on the old series. 

The benchmark five-year interest rate swap edged lower at 7.68% from previous close of 7.75% on Thursday.

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