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NCAER lowers India economic growth forecast to 4.7- 4.9% for FY14

07 Feb 2014 Evaluate

Amid prevailing economic slowdown in the country, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has lowered its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 4.7- 4.9 percent from 4.8 - 5.3 percent projected earlier. Presenting a somber picture of Indian economic outlook, NCAER noted that despite good farm production, high baseline oil price and rupee depreciation are the factors making significant dent to growth of GDP. Depreciation in the exchange rate likely to remain at 11 percent on y-o-y basis from 9.5 percent estimated earlier. NCAER has projected growth rate at 5.6 percent for the FY15. India's economic growth slowed down to a decade low of 5 percent in the previous fiscal and 4.6% in the first half of FY14.

Referring to industrial production, NCAER revised the FY14 growth projection for industry to 1.6 percent, while for FY15 it is projected an upward trend for industrial production to 3.8 percent. During the period April-November 2013-14, Indian industrial production stood at -0.2% from a year earlier. It further stated that services sector, which make up nearly 60% of country’ economics output, is struggling with slowdown. However, the sector’s growth gets some support from the rising Indian services exports mainly IT services. NCAER projected services sector growth at 5.6 percent for FY15.

Further, NCAER stated that WPI inflation is expected at 6.2 - 6.4 percent during the current fiscal. On fiscal deficit front, it estimated country’s fiscal deficit at 5.1 percent of GDP, which was higher than government's fiscal deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP for 2013-14. In the first nine months of this fiscal, Indian fiscal deficit reached Rs 5,16,390 crore or 95.2 per cent of the Rs 5,42,499 crore fiscal target.

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