United Nations in a report titled ‘World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014' has stated that the Indian government is unlikely to meet fiscal deficit target of 4.8 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal due to low growth and high subsidy. Although, the Finance Minister is very much optimistic about achieving the target 4.8% but the report just ahead of the interim budget is likely to raise concern.
The government has budgeted to bring down fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP in the current financial year, from 4.9 per cent in 2012-13, but the report said that the government is unlikely to meet its target since growth is below projections and the depreciation of the rupee pushes up the subsidy bill. The report also pointed that the tapering of the Fed’s bond buying programme could result in significant capital outflows, requiring further monetary tightening, especially in India.
However, on a positive side the report stated that though India is expected to grow at 4.8 per cent in the current fiscal but would rise to 5.3 per cent in 2014-15 on increased domestic demands and other factors like good monsoon season, a slight pick-up in investment activity, and stronger export growth supported by a cheaper national currency and improved demand for goods from the European Union and the US.
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