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  3. India's interim budget 2014-15 in line with the expectations: Moody

India's interim budget 2014-15 in line with the expectations: Moody

18 Feb 2014 Evaluate

Global rating agency Moody's underscored that India's interim budget 2014-15, somewhat termed as populist by the rest, was in line with the expectations and underpin the government's ‘Baa3’ rating with a stable outlook. Moody's stable outlook on India's Baa3 sovereign rating, which incorporates the macro-economic risks posed by the government's high deficit and debt ratios, also takes into account its recent efforts to bring down the fiscal deficit through ad hoc measures. Besides, it also incorporates the medium-term credit support provided by the government's favorable access to domestic savings for the purposes of financing its large borrowing requirements.

However, the rating agency has said that the new government would determine the longer-term fiscal trends that could impact the government's credit profile. Further, it also cautioned that India's fiscal position remains 'weak'. Moody’s although acknowledged that India’s fiscal deficit ratios had declined over the last few years, but remained higher than those of similarly rated peers. Moody's further highlighted governments higher-than- budgeted subsidy bill reveals the fiscal position's exposure to commodity prices and exchange-rate fluctuations.

Some of the global rating agencies like Moody's, S&P and Fitch have repeatedly threatened to lower India's credit rating and a downgrade would mean pushing the country's sovereign rating to junk status, making overseas borrowings by corporates costlier. In the interim budget 2014-15, the government pegged fiscal deficit for the current financial year to be contained at 4.6 per cent of GDP, which is lower than the fiscal deficit of 4.9 per cent of GDP in the previous financial year.

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