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Moody's expects FY15 growth at 5.5 percent

25 Feb 2014 Evaluate

International rating agency Moody's expects marginal increase in Indian economic growth at 5.5 percent during FY15 citing that the forthcoming elections will delay the reform process and hurt growth. Presenting a sober picture of India's economic outlook, Moody’s stated that interest rates in the country will continue to remain high and hence the rupee will continue to be volatile, making it difficult for importers and exporters.

Moody's noted that lower economic growth, volatile exchange rates, rising borrowing costs and slow economic reforms have dampened prospects across many sectors. Moody’s assigned negative outlook for certain domestically focused sectors such as cement, automotive, steel, real estate, metals and mining, and retail which are dependent on regulations and policy-setting. Furthermore, the agency also gave a negative outlook for non-financial corporates in 2014 citing reasons such as weak economy, political uncertainty and an impact of the US Fed’s tapering.

Conversely, the rating agency noted that domestic sectors like exploration and production, IT/business process outsourcing and pharma which depend on the external sector are comparatively better placed. Regarding the pharma sector, Moody’s stated that domestic pharma industry will get benefit from patent expiries in the US, thus gave a stable outlook for the sector. Moreover, it also assigned the stable outlook for telecom sector noting that industry income will improve on the back of consolidation and improved pricing power with operators. 

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