Fitch Ratings revises India GDP forecast to 7% in 2011-12

14 Dec 2011 Evaluate

The global rating agency Fitch, has revised downward its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for India to 7% in current financial year from 7.5%. It has also revised down its forecast for Fiscal year 2013 from 8% and 2014 from 8.5% to 7.5 and 8% respectively.

The Indian economy is likely to remain weighed down by a combination of the weaker global economy and higher domestic interest rates. India has already experienced a sharp slowdown this year and is expected to regain some of the lost momentum by 2013, Fitch said in its Global Economic Outlook.

India has been experiencing decline in economic growth, on the back of high interest rates, high inflation and slowdown in global economy affecting the capital inflow and exports of the country. In the second quarter of current financial year, India’s economic growth stood at 6.9% compared to 7.7% in April-June 2011, as a result India’s economic growth in the first six months of 2011-12 stood at 7.3% compared to 8.85% in the same period of last fiscal year.

However, despite the decline in economic growth, headline inflation measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) has been hovering close to two digit mark from last 11 months. On the other side, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), since March 2010, in order to control inflation has increased its repo rates and reverse repo rates by 13 times. However, non-stop hike in key policy rates have increased the cost of capital, which has adversely affected the investment rate in the economy. 

“Although the combination of slower economic growth and higher interest rates could eventually reduce demand driven pressure (as evident from 5.1 %y-o-y contraction in index of industrial production in October 2011), supply-side pressures may not ease so quickly,’’ Fitch said.

The recent weakening in the rupee, which has fallen roughly 15%in the past three months, coupled with elevated commodity prices, notably oil, suggests that it will take time before headline WPI displays significant improvement, the report said.

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