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RBI delivers the expected; holds key rates in first bi-monthly monetary policy 2014-15

01 Apr 2014 Evaluate

In the first bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2014-15, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan on much expected lines, decided to pause and not disturb status quo and thereby left the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 8.0 per cent. Besides, it also left other policy instruments such as Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) also remain unchanged at 4%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stood unchanged at 7.00 per cent and 9.00 per cent respectively.

On April fool’s day, the only thing surprising was the lack of surprise in RBI’s monetary policy stance which was on much expected lines after India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation eased to 8.10 percent in February, near the RBI's January 2015 target of 8 percent, while the wholesale price index slowed to a 9-month low of 4.68 percent.

However, in a bit of a twist, India’s central bank, in order to reduce dependence on overnight borrowing rates, decided to increase the liquidity provided under 7-day and 14 day term repos from 0.5 per cent of NDTL of the banking system to 0.75 per cent, and decrease the liquidity provided under overnight repos under the LAF from 0.5 per cent of bank-wise NDTL to 0.25 per cent with immediate effect.

Sounding cautious, RBI highlighted downside risks to the central estimate of 5.5 per cent for growth, while projecting real GDP growth to pick up from a little below 5 per cent in 2013-14 to a range of 5 to 6 per cent in 2014-15. Worryingly, it also said that "lead indicators do not point to any sustained revival in industry and services as yet, and the outlook for the agricultural sector was contingent upon the timely arrival and spread of the monsoon".

Importantly on its future policy stance, the Reserve Bank underscored that this would be firmly focused on keeping the economy on a disinflationary glide path that is intended to hit 8 per cent CPI inflation by January 2015 and 6 per cent by January 2016. Further, it also highlighted that it was appropriate in holding the policy rates at this juncture, while allowing the rate increases undertaken during September 2013-January 2014 to work their way through the economy.

With India heading for elections running from April 7 to May 12, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan apparently wanted to wait for a glimpse of the next government's economic policies as well as the outlook for monsoon season that begin in June before making a policy move. So far, Rajan raised the policy repo rate three times since he took over in September, including a surprise hike in January, but recently toned down his anti-inflation rhetoric, saying the RBI has not yet adopted an internal panel report that proposes inflation targeting.

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RBI delivers the expected; holds key rates in first bi-monthly monetary policy 2014-15

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