IMD scales down monsoon forecast to ‘below normal'

22 Jun 2011 Evaluate

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects rainfall during the current South-West monsoon to be ‘below normal', marking a downgrade from its earlier ‘normal' forecast issued on April 19. The country as a whole will receive only 95 per cent of its long period average (LPA) rainfall of 887.5 millimeter (mm) over the four-month monsoon season from June to September. That makes it a ‘below normal' monsoon, which corresponds to rainfall ranging between 90 to 96 per cent of LPA.

The latest forecast update from the IMD (subject to a plus or minus four per cent model error) is less optimistic compared with its first-stage long range prediction that had pegged overall monsoon rainfall at 98 per cent of LPA. Technically, it translated into a ‘normal' monsoon, defined in terms of aggregate rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA

The IMD has also released monsoon forecast for the country's four broad geographical regions, and also separately for July and August. While rainfall during the entire season is likely to be 97 per cent of the LPA of 615 mm for North-West India, these are placed at 95 per cent each for East and North-East (LPA of 1,438.3 mm) and Central India (975.5 mm), and 94 per cent for the Southern Peninsula (715.5 mm).

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