Stocks - Q : Quality | V : Valuation | PT : Price Trend
Funds - P : Performance | Q : Quality
Funds - P : Performance | Q : Quality
BSE: 500547 | NSE: BPCL | Refineries | Large Cap
Past 10 year's financial track record analysis by Moneyworks4me indicates that Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd is a good quality company.
The key valuation ratios of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd's currently when compared to its past seem to suggest it is in the Somewhat Undervalued zone.
The Price Trend analysis by MoneyWorks4Me indicates it is Strong which suggest that the price of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd is likely to Rise in the short term. However, please check the rating on Quality and Valuation before investing
Data adjusted to bonus, split, extra-ordinary income, rights issue and change in financial year end.
| Mar'15 | Mar'16 | Mar'17 | Mar'18 | Mar'19 | Mar'20 | Mar'21 | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | TTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROCE % ⓘ | 21.3% | 27.9% | 24% | 22% | 19.1% | 6.9% | 31% | 21.4% | 6.2% | 41.7% | - |
| Value Creation Index ⓘ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 2.7 | - |
Growth Parameters ⓘGrowth Parameters Colour Code Guide ⓘ | |||||||||||
| Sales ⓘ | 2,38,087 | 1,88,405 | 2,02,211 | 2,36,421 | 2,97,275 | 2,84,383 | 2,32,553 | 3,46,644 | 4,73,125 | 4,48,013 | 5,00,371 |
| Sales YoY Gr. | - | -20.9% | 7.3% | 16.9% | 25.7% | -4.3% | -18.2% | 49.1% | 36.5% | -5.3% | - |
| Adj EPS ⓘ | 10.6 | 19.2 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 18.9 | 10.1 | 30.6 | 25.4 | 11.1 | 65.9 | 30.6 |
| YoY Gr. | - | 81.6% | 6.2% | 0% | -7.2% | -46.4% | 202.5% | -17.1% | -56.2% | 493.1% | - |
| BVPS (₹) ⓘ | 51.6 | 69.5 | 75.4 | 86.8 | 93.4 | 84.4 | 128.3 | 121.3 | 122.1 | 174.8 | 186.8 |
| Adj Net Profit ⓘ | 4,587 | 7,550 | 8,016 | 8,018 | 7,439 | 3,986 | 12,825 | 10,815 | 4,731 | 28,061 | 13,276 |
| Cash Flow from Ops. ⓘ | 18,183 | 10,179 | 7,897 | 9,009 | 7,645 | 6,265 | 20,030 | 20,813 | 10,664 | 35,762 | - |
| Debt/CF from Ops. ⓘ | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 0.5 | - |
CAGR Colour Code Guide ⓘ
| 9 Years | 5 Years | 3 Years | 1 Years | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales ⓘ | 7.3% | 8.6% | 24.4% | -5.3% | ||||
| Adj EPS ⓘ | 22.6% | 28.4% | 29.1% | 493.1% | ||||
| BVPSⓘ | 14.5% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 43.2% | ||||
| Share Price | 9.7% | 14.3% | 22.4% | 1.8% | ||||
Performance Ratio Colour Code Guide ⓘ
| Mar'15 | Mar'16 | Mar'17 | Mar'18 | Mar'19 | Mar'20 | Mar'21 | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 | TTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return on Equity % ⓘ | 21.9 | 30.3 | 28.1 | 25.1 | 21 | 11.4 | 29.2 | 20.4 | 9.1 | 44.3 | 16.9 |
| Op. Profit Mgn % ⓘ | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 3 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 9.9 | 5.1 |
| Net Profit Mgn % ⓘ | 1.9 | 4 | 4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1 | 6.3 | 2.7 |
| Debt to Equity ⓘ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Working Cap Days ⓘ | 47 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 44 | 49 | 53 | 45 | 39 | 40 | 26 |
| Cash Conv. Cycle ⓘ | 10 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | -6 |
Sales growth is growing at healthy rate in last 3 years 24.43%
Net Profit is growing at healthy rate in last 3 years 29.08%
Debt to equity has declined versus last 3 years average to 0.26
Return on Equity has declined versus last 3 years average to 16.90%
Sales growth is not so good in last 4 quarters at -1.19%
| Standalone | Consolidated | |
|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS (₹) | 30.6 | 30.7 |
| TTM Sales (₹ Cr.) | 5,00,371 | 5,00,517 |
| BVPS (₹.) ⓘ | 186.8 | 187.7 |
| Reserves (₹ Cr.) ⓘ | 76,688 | 77,112 |
| P/BV ⓘ | 1.65 | 1.65 |
| PE ⓘ | 10.10 | 10.05 |
| From the Market | |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Low / High (₹) | 234.15 / 376.00 |
| All Time Low / High (₹) | 5.45 / 376.00 |
| Market Cap (₹ Cr.) | 1,34,015 |
| Equity (₹ Cr.) | 4,338.5 |
| Face Value (₹) | 10 |
| Industry PE ⓘ | 34.7 |
| Pledged * | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
On 24 January 1976, the Burmah Shell was taken over by the Government of India to form Bharat Refineries Limited. On 1 August 1977, it was renamed Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited.
On 1st October 2019, group of secretaries finalized privatization of BPCL by way of selling government selling stake to private owners. The interested parties could be large Oil & Gas companies from outside the country likes of Exxon Mobil or Royal Dutch Shell or Saudi Arabia’s leading and world’s largest Oil & Gas company, Aramco. Many global companies are keen to invest in India, one of the fastest growing fossil fuel markets. However, the network of PSU companies in marketing had kept barrier to entry very high. Not anymore, with privatization, global companies get a chance to become part India’s oil & gas market and scale them higher, more professionally.
We had written in our previous notes that we like BPCL over IOC and HPCL. BPCL, a maharatna company, has shown good capital allocation versus HPCL and IOC albeit not better than private peers. The company had invested in less cyclical petchem segment earlier than its peers and also hedged its refinery operations with buying stake in oil exploration business. Refinery business suffers shrinking margins when crude prices rise, while oil exploration business see expansion in profits. This reduces cyclicality. Although BPCL was not completely hedged from refinery business, but it has superior distribution efficiency and refining versus IOC.
We believe that this privatization will remove the street’s skepticism on government adherence to deregulation. Under their ownership, the government had liberty to take u-turn on its policy temporarily, but it won’t be possible to regulate private companies. This could lead to re-rating of the sector. We believe that this sector has good long-term prospects as Indian government is trying hard to reduce dependency of crude imports and explore/refine crude within the country. Despite the scale advantage these companies enjoy, they never commanded good P/E ratio in good or bad times. Since the government ownership overhang may go away, we will feel more confident investing in future.
Today may not be a good time to invest as valuation are already high. Best time to invest in refineries is when crude oil prices are falling. Quarterly profitability will lag but we can anticipate good gains in profits in falling crude oil scenario. Currently, refineries are already enjoying good margins and above average profitability. They trade in fair to slightly undervalued range. Upside is limited versus the risk of catalyst that could take prices higher.
At current prices one can consider selling half of their BPCL holdings as it trades above its fair value.
| PARTICULARS | Mar'15 | Mar'16 | Mar'17 | Mar'18 | Mar'19 | Mar'20 | Mar'21 | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 2,38,087 | 1,88,405 | 2,02,211 | 2,36,421 | 2,97,275 | 2,84,383 | 2,32,553 | 3,46,644 | 4,73,125 | 4,48,013 |
| Operating Expenses ⓘ | 2,29,772 | 1,77,380 | 1,91,476 | 2,24,704 | 2,85,311 | 2,77,929 | 2,15,422 | 3,27,620 | 4,62,169 | 4,03,857 |
| Manufacturing Costs | 7,890 | 8,032 | 8,096 | 9,193 | 10,699 | 11,806 | 10,841 | 13,260 | 16,048 | 17,135 |
| Material Costs | 2,16,721 | 1,62,670 | 1,76,353 | 2,07,251 | 2,64,690 | 2,55,937 | 1,95,321 | 3,03,454 | 4,33,214 | 3,76,094 |
| Employee Cost | 2,086 | 2,758 | 3,429 | 3,437 | 3,664 | 3,691 | 4,477 | 3,398 | 2,764 | 3,558 |
| Other Costs ⓘ | 3,076 | 3,921 | 3,598 | 4,823 | 6,257 | 6,495 | 4,782 | 7,509 | 10,143 | 7,069 |
| Operating Profit ⓘ | 8,315 | 11,025 | 10,735 | 11,717 | 11,964 | 6,454 | 17,131 | 19,023 | 10,956 | 44,157 |
| Operating Profit Margin (%) | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 9.9% |
| Other Income ⓘ | 2,200 | 1,776 | 2,695 | 3,055 | 2,984 | 3,267 | 4,596 | 2,632 | 2,185 | 2,413 |
| Interest ⓘ | 583 | 565 | 496 | 833 | 1,319 | 2,182 | 1,580 | 2,209 | 3,216 | 2,473 |
| Depreciation ⓘ | 2,516 | 1,845 | 1,891 | 2,653 | 3,189 | 3,787 | 3,978 | 5,418 | 6,347 | 6,750 |
| Exceptional Items ⓘ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1,081 | 6,449 | 1,643 | -1,360 | -1,798 |
| Profit Before Tax ⓘ | 7,416 | 10,391 | 11,043 | 11,286 | 10,440 | 2,671 | 22,618 | 15,672 | 2,217 | 35,548 |
| Tax ⓘ | 2,331 | 3,335 | 3,003 | 3,310 | 3,308 | -12 | 3,576 | 4,308 | 347 | 8,875 |
| Profit After Tax | 5,085 | 7,056 | 8,039 | 7,976 | 7,132 | 2,683 | 19,042 | 11,363 | 1,870 | 26,674 |
| PAT Margin (%) | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 6.0% |
| Adjusted EPS (₹) | 11.7 | 17.9 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 18.1 | 6.8 | 45.5 | 26.7 | 4.4 | 62.4 |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (%) | 32% | 29% | 53% | 52% | 52% | 121% | 87% | 30% | 46% | 25% |
| PARTICULARS | Mar'15 | Mar'16 | Mar'17 | Mar'18 | Mar'19 | Mar'20 | Mar'21 | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Equity and Liabilities | ||||||||||
| Shareholders Fund | 22,467 | 27,323 | 29,668 | 34,131 | 36,738 | 33,214 | 53,688 | 51,645 | 51,996 | 74,675 |
| Share Capital ⓘ | 723 | 656 | 1,311 | 1,967 | 1,967 | 1,967 | 2,093 | 2,129 | 2,129 | 2,136 |
| Reserves ⓘ | 21,744 | 26,667 | 28,357 | 32,165 | 34,771 | 31,248 | 51,595 | 49,516 | 49,867 | 72,539 |
| Minority Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debt | 11,777 | 13,591 | 21,004 | 22,851 | 27,209 | 38,203 | 21,266 | 28,529 | 26,604 | 15,732 |
| Long Term Debt | 11,737 | 13,567 | 13,776 | 14,758 | 23,629 | 20,482 | 17,033 | 21,032 | 19,442 | 8,490 |
| Short Term Debt | 40 | 24 | 7,227 | 8,093 | 3,581 | 17,721 | 4,233 | 7,497 | 7,162 | 7,242 |
| Trade Payables | 12,631 | 8,545 | 11,520 | 14,990 | 17,688 | 12,510 | 16,256 | 30,330 | 24,011 | 28,293 |
| Others Liabilities ⓘ | 22,869 | 25,898 | 29,798 | 28,159 | 33,993 | 42,542 | 49,384 | 53,679 | 58,223 | 54,293 |
| Total Liabilities ⓘ | 69,745 | 75,357 | 91,990 | 1,00,131 | 1,15,627 | 1,26,469 | 1,40,594 | 1,64,184 | 1,60,833 | 1,72,993 |
Fixed Assets | ||||||||||
| Gross Block | 41,810 | 25,035 | 35,138 | 49,186 | 55,792 | 69,785 | 80,611 | 1,05,654 | 1,13,974 | 1,19,705 |
| Accumulated Depreciation | 21,495 | 1,828 | 3,701 | 6,158 | 9,304 | 12,834 | 16,674 | 21,847 | 27,378 | 32,968 |
| Net Fixed Assetsⓘ | 20,315 | 23,207 | 31,437 | 43,028 | 46,488 | 56,951 | 63,936 | 83,806 | 86,596 | 86,737 |
| CWIP ⓘ | 7,666 | 12,664 | 11,623 | 4,408 | 7,066 | 9,505 | 7,350 | 4,997 | 5,673 | 8,781 |
| Investmentsⓘ | 12,391 | 12,811 | 14,601 | 15,626 | 15,992 | 16,058 | 17,684 | 12,632 | 13,872 | 14,458 |
| Inventories | 14,458 | 13,793 | 19,798 | 20,875 | 21,545 | 20,421 | 26,757 | 42,176 | 38,065 | 42,835 |
| Trade Receivables | 2,561 | 2,189 | 4,758 | 5,152 | 6,671 | 5,164 | 7,827 | 9,700 | 6,722 | 8,328 |
| Cash Equivalents | 1,360 | 2,067 | 65 | 183 | 95 | 116 | 7,053 | 1,451 | 2,120 | 4,491 |
| Others Assetsⓘ | 10,993 | 8,626 | 9,708 | 10,860 | 17,771 | 18,254 | 9,986 | 9,422 | 7,784 | 7,362 |
| Total Assets ⓘ | 69,745 | 75,357 | 91,990 | 1,00,131 | 1,15,627 | 1,26,469 | 1,40,594 | 1,64,184 | 1,60,833 | 1,72,993 |
| PARTICULARS | Mar'15 | Mar'16 | Mar'17 | Mar'18 | Mar'19 | Mar'20 | Mar'21 | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow From Operating Activity ⓘ | 18,183 | 10,179 | 7,897 | 9,009 | 7,645 | 6,265 | 20,030 | 20,813 | 10,664 | 35,762 |
| PBT ⓘ | 7,372 | 10,391 | 11,043 | 11,286 | 10,440 | 2,671 | 22,618 | 15,672 | 2,217 | 35,548 |
| Adjustment ⓘ | 1,426 | 1,622 | 724 | 1,107 | 2,734 | 5,805 | -3,223 | 5,089 | 9,310 | 10,333 |
| Changes in Working Capital ⓘ | 11705 | 752 | -829 | -1085 | -3458 | -665 | 3500 | 1875 | -61 | -1300 |
| Tax Paid ⓘ | -2,330 | -2,490 | -2,949 | -2,132 | -1,893 | -1,236 | -2,719 | -1,685 | -710 | -8,658 |
| Cash Flow From Investing Activity ⓘ | -7,909 | -7,975 | -10,130 | -4,741 | -7,537 | -9,172 | 2,170 | -7,744 | -6,397 | -11,661 |
| Capex | -8,017 | -9,312 | -8,967 | -6,917 | -9,017 | -9,341 | -6,008 | -7,366 | -7,334 | -8,763 |
| Net Investments | -364 | -269 | -1,282 | -1,293 | -720 | -170 | 6,094 | -1,666 | -2,559 | -5,055 |
| Others ⓘ | 472 | 1,605 | 119 | 3,470 | 2,200 | 339 | 2,085 | 1,288 | 3,495 | 2,157 |
| Cash Flow From Financing Activityⓘ | -9,121 | -1,840 | 567 | -4,423 | -87 | 2,940 | -15,622 | -18,662 | -3,666 | -25,466 |
| Net Proceeds from Shares ⓘ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 462 | 0 | 0 |
| Net Proceeds from Borrowing ⓘ | 908 | 2,046 | 314 | -824 | 9,902 | -3,291 | -1,666 | -2,931 | 1,456 | -17,324 |
| Interest Paid ⓘ | -666 | -782 | -760 | -831 | -1,075 | -1,327 | -1,231 | -1,377 | -2,231 | -1,917 |
| Dividend Paid ⓘ | -1,229 | -2,524 | -5,114 | -2,885 | -3,540 | -4,819 | -4,261 | -14,483 | -1,282 | -5,329 |
| Others ⓘ | -8,134 | -579 | 6,126 | 117 | -5,374 | 12,377 | -8,464 | -333 | -1,609 | -896 |
| Net Cash Flow ⓘ | 1,153 | 364 | -1,666 | -155 | 21 | 34 | 6,578 | -5,592 | 601 | -1,365 |
| PARTICULARS | Mar'15 | Mar'16 | Mar'17 | Mar'18 | Mar'19 | Mar'20 | Mar'21 | Mar'22 | Mar'23 | Mar'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ratios | ||||||||||
| ROE (%) | 24.35 | 28.38 | 28.21 | 25 | 20.13 | 7.67 | 43.82 | 21.58 | 3.61 | 42.11 |
| ROCE (%) | 21.28 | 27.85 | 24.04 | 21.97 | 19.07 | 6.88 | 30.95 | 21.42 | 6.23 | 41.68 |
| Asset Turnover Ratio | 3.57 | 3 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 3.13 | 2.71 | 2.26 | 2.84 | 3.28 | 3.04 |
| PAT to CFO Conversion(x) | 3.58 | 1.44 | 0.98 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 2.34 | 1.05 | 1.83 | 5.7 | 1.34 | Working Capital Days |
| Receivable Days | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| Inventory Days | 24 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 29 |
| Payable Days | 20 | 22 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 26 | 28 | 23 | 25 |
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) was established in 1952. BPCL is a Government of India Enterprise listed on Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and National Stock Exchange of India Limited.
Business area of the company
The Corporation is engaged in the business of refining of crude oil and marketing of petroleum products. It has refineries at Mumbai and Kochi, LPG bottling plants and Lube blending plants at various locations. The Corporation’s marketing infrastructure includes vast network of Installations, Depots, Retail Outlets, Aviation Fuelling Stations and LPG distributors.
Businesses/ Products & Services
Fuels & Services: offers world-class Fuel Stations (Petrol Pump) across the country, selling Petrol, Diesel, Automotive LPG and CNG.
Bharatgas: Bharatgas comes from the house of Bharat Petroleum, a Fortune 500 company and a major player in refining and marketing of petroleum products in India. Bharatgas fuels million homes and has brought many innovative products and customer centric offerings to the customers.
MAK Lubricants: from Bharat Petroleum - reign eminently as a trusted brand in lubricants and greases in India and international markets.
Aviation Services: Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is pioneer in providing aviation fuel services in India.
Oil Refineries: Bharat Petroleum operates several oil refineries in India.
Gas: Natural gas is seen as a great energy source of the 21st century, and to provide energy security to customers, BPCL diversified into the gas business. The emerging gas demand in the country provides BPCL with an opportunity to expand its existing portfolio of energy supply.
Industrial & Commercial: To cater to the Industries needs for fuels and other petrochemicals, BPCL Industrial and Commercial Fuel Services Business Unit, commonly known as I&C SBU was formed.
Awards
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MoneyWorks4Me rating and ranking of funds for SIP is available to subscribers only. Moneyworks4Me is not a rating and ranking agency, however it is required that users have a way of selecting funds and building a Portfolio. The method used by it are described below to enable users to understand the logic behind the rating and ranking Subscriber will find more details on this in the various content made available from time to time. In case you need more please write to besafe@moneyworks4Me.com
MoneyWorks4Me rates and ranks mutual funds based on the following data-driven system:
Funds ranking in screeners: Performance Consistency and Quality are two parameters used for ranking funds for SIP. The ranking as follows GG, GO, GR, OG, OO, OR, RG, RO and RR.
With the same color-coded funds, the one with the higher Average 3-year rolling returns (over 5 to 10 years), the number that appears in the Performance tag, ranks higher.
Here is the summary:
The third tag Upside Potential is not relevant for SIP. It is relevant for lumpsum investments in Mutual Funds.
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