Benchmarks manage to end range bound session higher

Indian equity benchmarks managed to end a range bound session higher on the first trading day of the financial year 2023-24, helped by buying in Telecom, Auto and Realty shares despite a spike in crude oil prices. Markets made a positive start as traders took some encouragement with report that GST collection grew 13 per cent in March to Rs 1.60 lakh crore - the second highest mop-up since the rollout of the indirect tax regime. Some optimism also came as Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal exuded confidence that India’s merchandise and services exports will cross $2 trillion by 2030 from the current level of $765 billion. However, markets soon slipped in red as traders turned cautious with the latest public debt management report showing that the government’s total liabilities rose to Rs 150.95 lakh crore in December quarter from Rs 147.19 lakh crore in the three months ended September 2022.

However, in the late afternoon deals, markets erased all of their initial losses to settle in green amid report stating that India's manufacturing sector activity improved in the month of March, as growth of factory orders and production quickened to the strongest in three months. With pressure on supply chains subsiding and raw material availability improving, input cost inflation retreated to its second-lowest mark in two-and-a-half years. According to the report, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surged to 56.4 in March from 55.3 in February, signaling the strongest improvement in operating conditions in 2023 so far. Meanwhile, RBI's rate-setting panel started its three-day meeting amid expectations that the central bank may go for 25 basis points hike in benchmark interest rate, probably the last in the current monetary tightening cycle that began in May 2022.

On the global front, Asian markets settled mostly higher on Monday after the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation rose less than expected in February, boosting optimism policymakers might hit the pause button on rate hikes in May. European markets were trading higher as investors shrugged off data showing that activity at struggling factories across the eurozone fell further last month. S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.3 in March from February's 48.5 and just ahead of a preliminary reading of 47.1.

Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 114.92 points or 0.19% to 59,106.44 and the CNX Nifty was up by 38.30 points or 0.22% to 17,398.05.

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 59,204.82 and 58,793.08, respectively. There were 22 stocks advancing against 8 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.36%, while Small cap index was up by 1.17%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 1.78%, Auto up by 1.39%, Realty up by 0.80%, Consumer Durables up by 0.76% and Bankex up by 0.54%, while Oil & Gas down by 0.59%, Power down by 0.34%, IT down by 0.33%, FMCG down by 0.32% and Utilities down by 0.15% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Maruti Suzuki up by 2.50%, Bajaj Finance up by 1.74%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.56%, NTPC up by 1.40% and Bajaj Finserv up by 1.26%. On the flip side, ITC down by 1.17%, Infosys down by 1.17%, Hindustan Unilever down by 0.89%, Power Grid Corporation down by 0.49% and Tata Steel down by 0.43% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, exuding confidence over India’s exports growth, Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has said that the country’s merchandise and services exports will cross $2 trillion by 2030 from the current level of $765 billion, after he unveiled a ‘dynamic and responsive’ foreign trade policy. He said that goods exports have witnessed good growth considering the current global scenario while services exports may see a quantum jump in the current fiscal.

He said ‘we have to meet our exports targets going forward’ and added that ‘we will need to work a bit harder’ on goods exports. He further said ‘it shouldn’t be that by 2030, services exports cross $1 trillion while you (merchandise exports) lag behind. I am confident that we will cross $2 trillion by 2030’. The minister said he has asked the Department of Commerce to undertake a ‘massive focused concentrated’ outreach globally in the next 4-5 months sectorally as well as country-wise through Indian missions abroad with special focus on trade, technology, tourism and investment.

India’s total exports growth decelerated to 13.4 per cent in 2022-23 annually from 36 per cent expansion in the previous financial year as global demand was affected following outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and other geopolitical reasons. He highlighted that ‘we will achieve exports of $1 trillion each in goods and services by 2030’. The Foreign Trade Policy 2023 outlines a host of measures and incentives to boost exports from India.

The CNX Nifty traded in a range of 17,428.05 and 17,312.75. There were 32 stocks advancing against 17 stocks declining, while 1 stock remained unchanged on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Hero MotoCorp up by 3.48%, Coal India up by 3.11%, Bajaj Auto up by 2.71%, Maruti Suzuki up by 2.60% and Divi's Laboratories up by 2.01%. On the flip side, BPCL down by 4.08%, Adani Enterprises down by 1.85%, Apollo Hospital down by 1.81%, Infosys down by 1.26% and ITC down by 1.12% were the top losers.

European markets were trading higher; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 64.07 points or 0.84% to 7,695.81, France’s CAC rose 35.55 points or 0.49% to 7,357.94 and Germany’s DAX gained 8.74 points or 0.06% to 15,637.58.

Asian markets settled mostly higher on Monday tracking Wall Street gains last Friday after the US Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation rose slightly less than anticipated in February, boosting optimism the US Fed might hold off on raising interest rates at its next meeting in early May. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained after Beijing launched a cybersecurity probe into US memory chip maker Micron Technology, despite a private survey showed China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly eased in March. Japanese shares rose, despite signs of worsening business sentiment in the first quarter of this year among big Japanese manufacturers. Although, a sharp rise in crude oil prices on the back of surprise output cuts announced by OPEC+ nations stoked investor concerns around potential resurgence in inflation globally.