India Ratings maintains stable outlook on consolidated finance of state govts

11 Mar 2014 Evaluate

India Ratings and Research has maintained a stable outlook on the consolidated finances of Indian state administrations, which the agency feels would remain resilient against the backdrop of current economic downturn, despite a marginal increase in the combined deficits of states. The agency estimates consolidated fiscal deficit of states to increase to 2.3 per cent of GDP in FY14 as against the budget estimate of 2.2 per cent. However, this is not expected to affect their consolidated credit profile.

Further, the rating agency also has a stable outlook in its rated state-government guaranteed debt programmes and is likely to affirm all other state government guaranteed debt programmes ratings in FY15. However, the ratings on the Andhra government guaranteed debt programme have been put on rating watch following the bifurcation of the state.

The study also highlights the states consolidated finances are vulnerable to value added tax on petroleum products, which could run into a trouble if crude oil prices decline, though this at present looks difficult.

The Fitch group rating agency expects the liquidity of states to remain comfortable in FY15. However, it has warned that fiscal recklessness in the run-up to general elections and a prolonged growth slowdown could lead to the outlook being revised to negative, although the probability of both these possibilities remain low.

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